Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Warnings in 2019

Tornado Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

March 14, 2019Jackson County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this tornado warning at Mar 14, 2019, 7:10 PM EDT for Jackson County, Michigan. It was in force for 20 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 14, 2019, 7:10 PM EDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired: Mar 14, 2019, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 20 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 1.0 in

County Jackson County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 14, 6:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1254 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 243 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

215 
WFUS53 KGRR 142310
TORGRR
MIC075-142345-
/O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0001.190314T2310Z-190314T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
710 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Jackson County in south central Michigan...

* Until 745 PM EDT.
    
* At 710 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Cement City, or 9 miles south of Vandercook Lake,
  moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Brooklyn and Sunset Beach around 715 PM EDT.
  Napoleon and Norvell around 720 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8438 4226 8413 4207 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 231DEG 48KT 4206 8433 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BORCHARDT

2 follow-up statements

708 
WWUS53 KGRR 142325
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
725 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

MIC075-142345-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2345Z/
Jackson MI-
725 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...
    
At 725 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Manchester, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Jackson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4226 8413 4209 8413 4216 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 230DEG 39KT 4217 8414 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

DUKE

722 
WWUS53 KGRR 142330
SVSGRR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
730 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

MIC075-142339-
/O.CAN.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2345Z/
Jackson MI-
730 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
south central Michigan.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Grand Rapids.

LAT...LON 4226 8413 4209 8413 4216 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 231DEG 48KT 4221 8407 

$$

BORCHARDT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Mar 14, 6:33 PM EDT, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 6:33 PM EDT, 37 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
633 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

-  Next few hours will be the window for severe weather

-  Snow showers arrive Friday

-  Seasonal temperatures for much of the period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

The line of severe thunderstorms will continue to move east and
out of our CWA by 730 pm. I plan to drop the counties in the
severe thunderstorm watch at that time.

Surface winds have turned to the southwest and have started to
gusty in the 30 to 40 mph range. I at this point plan to keep the
wind advisory going till 11 pm as forecast since winds should
increase farther as the cold air continues to come in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

The combination of favorable 0 to 3 km CAPE along 0 to 1 km
helicity and very low lcl's support an increased risk for severe
weather. Water vapor imagery shows a decent vort lobe pivoting
thru IL as well. The storms upstream have not shown stronger
organization yet, but will need to monitor trends very closely. The
storms should be pulling east of Lansing 7 to 8 pm.

Gusty winds still a risk around any storms and also behind the
passage of the wave. Gusts to 45 mph still possible so no change
to the advisory headline.

Colder air moves in from the west tonight through Friday. We will
still see considerable snow melt. This combined with storm total
rainfalls of mostly a half inch to an inch could still allow for
flooding across the watch area. We will keep it going for now.

With temperatures going below freezing Friday night some icy
spots look possible on the roadways. A low risk for impacts at
this time.

The rest period looks rather quiet as more of a zonal flow
develops. Fairly close to seasonable temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through about 00z.
Impacts will accompany these storms to aviators will need to
monitor the latest. Without the storms the winds will be gusting
over 25 knots at times with 40 knots possible. The winds will be
shifting as well especially around any storms.

MVFR ceilings look likely tonight with some light rain. There is a
risk for IFR. As the colder air moves in from the west...a
transition to snow is forecasted for Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

A general one third inch of rain fell across West Michigan since
Wednesday morning.  The heaviest rain fell along and west of Grand
Rapids with isolated amounts between one half and three quarters of
an inch.  Lesser amounts...around one tenth of an inch...were
reported along and east of US Highway 127.  Temperatures remained
well above freezing overnight across the region...which continued
the melting of any remaining snow pack.

Runoff from rainfall and snowmelt will continue to move through the
river systems into next week. An additional one quarter to one half
inch of rain is expected through Friday morning.  The
convective nature of precipitation today will result in more
localized heavy rainfall.

Significant rises are expected on most of the mainstem rivers across
West Michigan.  The Chippewa at Mount Pleasant...Maple at Maple
Rapids...Rogue at Rockford...Muskegon at Newaygo and Bridgeton...and
the Grand at Comstock Park and Robinson Township may rise above
flood stage with minor flooding possible.  Other forecast points are
currently expected to remain below flood stage.

The mild temperatures and rainfall have resulted in significant
breakup of ice in area rivers.  While the overall threat of ice jam
development has decreased the threat is greatest for locations
across Central Michigan in the White and Muskegon Chippewa basins.
People with interests along rivers in Central Michigan should
continue to be alert for rapid changes in river levels.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MWS

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 2:00 PM EDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150745-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected
today. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and
large hail possible. Isolated tornadoes could occur.

Even without the storms some winds gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range
are possible into this evening.

Water levels will be rising on area streams and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Recent rainfall and snow melt will lead to river rises across the
area into the weekend. People living along streams and rivers can
expect rises over the course of the next week. The biggest rises
will likely occur north of I-96 where more snowmelt will take
place.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

BORCHARDT MJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:29 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
629 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     FLOOD            NEWAYGO                 43.42N 85.80W
03/14/2019                   NEWAYGO            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING IN NEWAYGO COUNTY. REPORTS OF 1.5
            INCHES OF RAIN TODAY COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT.

&&

ED

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:34 PM EDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
634 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             1 E EAST LANSING        42.74N 84.46W
03/14/2019  M0.25 INCH       INGHAM             MI   PUBLIC

            NEAR HAGADORN RD AND GRAND RIVER AVE

&&

WFELVER

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:35 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 SSE CHARLOTTE         42.56N 84.82W
03/14/2019  M1.25 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT 813 EAST SHAW ST, CHARLOTTE MI.
            HAIL MEASURED FROM 1 INCH TO 1.25 INCH.
            ESTIMATE TIME PERIOD WAS 6PM TO 6:05PM.

&&

ED

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:37 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
637 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             2 N LANSING             42.74N 84.55W
03/14/2019  M0.25 INCH       INGHAM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT LANSING COMMUNITY COLLEGE,
            LANSING MI.

&&

ED

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:38 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
638 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             1 ENE CHARLOTTE         42.57N 84.82W
03/14/2019  M1.00 INCH       EATON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED AT ISLAND HIGHWAY AND INTERSTATE
            69, CHARLOTTE MI.

&&

ED

Local storm report, Mar 14, 6:40 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
640 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             DIMONDALE               42.65N 84.64W
03/14/2019  M0.88 INCH       EATON              MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY WLNS.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 14, 9:48 AM EDT	Wind Advisory	GRR	Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Gratiot and 14 more	13 hr
Mar 14, 2:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Barry, Kalamazoo	29 min
Mar 14, 4:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Van Buren	44 min
Mar 14, 4:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Kent	46 min
Mar 14, 4:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Allegan, Barry	25 min
Mar 14, 5:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kalamazoo	37 min
Mar 14, 5:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ionia, Kent	28 min
Mar 14, 5:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Eaton	53 min
Mar 14, 5:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Eaton	40 min
Mar 14, 6:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton, Eaton, Ingham	34 min
Mar 14, 6:12 PM EDT	Areal Flood Warning	GRR	Clare, Gratiot, Isabella, Lake, Mason, Mecosta and 5 more	20 hr
Mar 14, 6:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Jackson	39 min
Mar 14, 7:05 PM EDT	River Flood Warning	GRR	Gratiot	21 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Michigan, 2019 Every tornado warning in 2019 Tornadoes in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.