Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The threat for severe weather continues to be the main challenge
in the short-term. Cold front approaching the area is moving into
a moist, unstable atmosphere. Convection from earlier MCV moving
across NE Wisconsin while additional storms form near the surface
front.

Somewhat drier air will move into the area overnight, but low-
level mositure will be sufficient for areas of fog.

Weak ripple in WNW flow aloft may set off isolated convection,
perhaps associated with convergence along lake breeze.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Another cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening, and bring thunderstorms to the forecast
area. CAPE is expected to build to 1500-2500 j/kg ahead of the
boundary, as deep layer shear increases to 25 to 35 knots. SPC
has the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather, which
seems reasonable for now. Convergence along the boundary is not
expected to be very strong, due to low-level westerly flow, so
coverage should be scattered.

Canadian high pressure is expected to build into the region for
the end of the work week, and bring dry weather, cooler
temperatures and low humidity.

A new development is the potential for precipitation on Saturday,
as WAA on the northwest periphery of the departing high, a short-
wave trof, and a coupled upper jet impact the region. This should
be a quick hitter, with Canadian high pressure returning for the
end of the weekend and early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Cold front continues to move across area. IFR conditions and
strong surface wind gusts are occurring with strongest
thunderstorms, with VFR conditions elsewhere. The activity will
end from west to east this evening.

Some ground fog or low stratus is possible late tonight through
about 12z Tuesday, then VFR conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the daytime hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......JKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-062045-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
possible into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to contact the National Weather Service with
reports of severe weather.

LMZ521-522-541>543-062045-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with strong winds and frequent lightning will be a
threat to mariners into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Lightning and strong winds will pose a hazard to
mariners.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
705 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ045-060100-
Waushara WI-
705 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAUSHARA COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Hartman Creek State Park to 6
miles southwest of Plainfield. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wautoma, Berlin, Redgranite, Plainfield, Napowan Scout Camp, Silver
Lake, Pine River, Dakota, Mount Morris and Saxeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4398 8955 4403 8960 4424 8960 4424 8911
      4414 8889 4398 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 301DEG 30KT 4430 8933 4415 8959

Kieckbusch

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