Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
121 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Weak upper flow and surface features will combine to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms again today. Northeast winds
behind a weak surface front should produce more stable conditions
over the Door Peninsula, with precipitation least likely there
during the afternoon hours. With 500mb winds of only 5 to 15
knots, the slow moving storms could produce locally heavy rains as
they did yesterday. Highs today will be a few degrees above
normal with dewpoints mostly in the 60s.

Scattered storms should dissipate this evening with the loss of
surface heating. Lows should be a degree or two above normal. Some
ground fog is possible, especially in areas that receive rain.

Sunday should be mostly sunny, warm and humid, with less afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms than today. Highs will be
just above normals.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

The primary focus of the long term focus continues to be Monday,
along the frontal boundary that will move across the region.

Sunday night, diurnally driven convection will be coming to an
end. Did include some chance pops across central Wisconsin as
going dry at 00Z seemed too early for the region. A few showers
may also move in ahead of the frontal system Monday, so kept pops
in during the morning hours early on Monday.

The main focus for the long term is Monday afternoon and evening.
Strong heating ahead of the front with highs in the lower to
middle 80s, combined with rising dewpoints in to the middle 60s
will lead to a fairly unstable atmosphere. Severe weather
parameters have been fairly consistently high, with MLCAPEs in the
range of 2000-2500 J/kg and bulk shear values around 30-40 knots.
Therefore not too surprising to have the marginal and slight SPC
risks over us in the Day 3. Would expect storms to develop along
the front in the afternoon and move slowly southeastwards through
the evening. Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are likely to be
the greatest threats, but large hail can't be ruled out. Some
uncertainty does still exist, as there may still be showers and
clouds ahead of the front, which could help reduce the overall
severe potential. Likewise, the timing of the front is not yet
clear, as models have shuffled around a bit on the exact timing.

Once this system is through, Tuesday through Thursday will be
fairly similar days, with diurnally induced showers and storms
expected in the afternoon, but on a very limited coverage basis.
Tuesday has perhaps the best chance of going completely dry, but
kept some slight pops in as we are still under the influence of
cyclonic flow during this period. Expect high temperatures to fall
back into the middle to upper 70s across the region Tuesday
through the rest of the extended period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Thunderstorms, that recently developed, are the main
concern early in the TAF valid period, followed by fog potential
overnight. Mesoanalysis graphics indicated little or no CIN and
MUCAPE of at least 1,000 J/kg across the area, and even in excess
of 2,000 J/kg in north-central Wisconsin. Wind field is weak so
storms will continue to move slowly southeast this afternoon and
into the early evening before they start to dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Fog development is likely tonight across
the area, especially at locations that receive heavy rainfall
from the storms where patchy dense fog is expected.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......MG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

WIZ005-010>013-031900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-
1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...

Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, wind gusts to 30 mph,
and cloud to ground lightning will continue to develop across far
northern Wisconsin early this afternoon.

Boaters, fishermen and other outdoor enthusiasts should keep an
eye on the sky, and seek shelter when storms approach.

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1246 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

WIZ005-010-031845-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
1246 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN VILAS AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES...

At 1240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Eagle River to near
Woodruff. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail, wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and brief heavy
rainfall will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rhinelander, Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, Newbold, Squirrel Lake,
Crystal Lake Scout Reservation, Willow Lake, Rainbow Flowage, Willow
Reservoir and Minocqua.

People at Pioneer Park in Rhinelander should consider seeking safe
shelter, as these storms are expected to arrive shortly before 2
PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Boaters and fishermen should head to shore when thunderstorms
approach. Keep an eye on the sky.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 9004 4607 8929 4572 8905 4568 8905
      4555 8989 4556 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 343DEG 17KT 4599 8937 4589 9000

Kieckbusch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

WIZ013-031930-
Northern Marinette County WI-
133 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pembine, or 12 miles southeast of Kingsford, moving south at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pembine, Wausaukee, Amberg, Beecher, Athelstane, Miscauno Island,
Cedarville and Kremlin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4568 8778 4565 8783 4559 8778 4556 8779
      4556 8783 4550 8779 4544 8786 4541 8785
      4536 8789 4535 8789 4537 8787 4535 8785
      4535 8782 4534 8781 4534 8806 4537 8806
      4537 8809 4571 8809 4572 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 355DEG 20KT 4565 8796

Kieckbusch