Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1033 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday. Turning
much cooler for the weekend, then temperatures rebounding to near
seasonal normals by the middle to latter part of next week.

The large scale pattern across North America will settle into a
fairly typical early summer regime during the forecast period. A
seasonably strong band of westerlies will remain across southern
Canada. Modest amplitude early will give way to a nearly zonal
regime by the middle of next week, then some reamplification will
occur late in the period.

Precipitation chances will primarily be tied to the passage of
frontal systems through the region, likely resulting in near to
modestly above normal amounts. Temperatures will drop to below
normal for the weekend and the start of the new work week, then
should rebound close to seasonal normals.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Not much change to expectations about convective development and
behavior since the mid-day update. Deep mixing took dewpoints down
during the afternoon, leaving an inverted-V temperature/moisture
profile, but with limited buoyancy. Gusty winds are still likely
with the strongest storms during the late afternoon and evening,
with a marginal risk of damaging/severe gusts.

The front will slow as it reaches southern Wisconsin late tonight
as a strong shortwave digs southeast toward the Lake Superior
region. That should lead to a significant increase in
precipitation coverage tomorrow, especially over east-central
Wisconsin. Precipitation could be sufficient to produce another
widespread soaking rainfall over east-central Wisconsin, though
amounts are not expected to be sufficient to generate more than
minor flooding of low-lying areas. The potential for northeast
winds to produce some additional flooding/erosion along the
shores of the lake and bay will need to be monitored, though wind
speeds are not expected to be nearly as strong as with a couple of
the past events.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

Split flow entering the western CONUS to persist into the middle
of next week before consolidating as a weak upper low over the
southwest CONUS moves toward the mid-MS Valley by the end of the
work week. As all of this occurs, northeast WI to be under the
influence of strong westerlies running along the northern tier of
states. The best precipitation chance would arrive late Tuesday
into Wednesday associated with a cold front/mid-level shortwave
trough. After a cool weekend into Monday, temperatures will return
to near normal levels for the rest of next week.

Precipitation should have come to an end by Saturday evening as
the initial cold front/mid-level shortwave trough pull away from
WI. High pressure to build across the Upper Midwest for the rest
of Saturday night with a drier air mass moving into WI. Look for
skies to clear and winds to become relatively light out of the
northwest. Min temperatures to range from the upper 30s to around
40 degrees north (with patchy frost possible in our colder
locations), to the middle to upper 40s south. The high pressure
will push east into the western Great Lakes on Sunday and provide
mostly sunny skies, low relative humidity and cool conditions. Max
temperatures to only reach around 60 degrees far north/near Lake
MI, mainly middle 60s south.

A new wrinkle to the forecast has popped up beginning Sunday night
as both the NAM and GFS now increase the clouds over northeast WI
in response to an uptick in WAA and a shortwave dropping southeast
through the mean flow aloft. Both of these models already bring
light rain showers into parts of the forecast area after midnight,
while the GEM and ECMWF remain dry. The concern is that with a dry
air mass in place, how much precipitation will actually make it to
the ground? Have increased cloud cover and may introduce a small
pop to northern WI depending on collaboration with surrounding
offices. This unknown would also impact min temperatures as more
clouds would prevent readings from dropping too far and take the
frost out of the forecast. This potential chance for rain would
continue through Monday morning as the warmer air aloft surges
into the region. Once again, the amount of clouds and extent of
any rain will impact temperatures. Prefer to keep readings below
normal with upper 50s to around 60 degrees near Lake MI, middle
60s north and upper 60s south.

Northeast WI to reside between the stronger isentropic lift to our
east and out next weather maker into the form of another cold
front/mid-level shortwave trough to our west Monday night,
therefore dry conditions are expected. As this system tracks east
into the Upper MS Valley on Tuesday, increasing moisture transport
spreads into WI and may bring showers/thunderstorms back into the
forecast, especially during the afternoon hours. Max temperatures
for Tuesday to range from the lower to middle 60s near Lake MI,
lower to middle 70s elsewhere. Chance of showers/storms to
continue into Tuesday night as the cold front/shortwave trough
combination push east across WI. Temperatures are expected to be
close to normal.

High pressure to then build into the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night and reside to our east on Thursday. Look for quiet weather
conditions with max temperatures Thursday holding in the lower to
middle 60s near Lake MI, lower to middle 70s for inland locations.
As a new upper trough hits the Pacific Northwest late next week,
the upper low over the southwest CONUS gets kicked out and is
forecast to reach the mid-MS Valley by next Friday. It appears
that any showers or thunderstorms associated with this system will
remain to our south through 00Z Saturday, thus have kept Friday
dry for most of the forecast area. The exception may be far
northern WI where a weak frontal boundary to exist and focus a
potential for showers. Temperatures to remain seasonable on Friday
with lower to middle 60s lakeside, lower to middle 70s elsewhere.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

A cold front will sag south of the forecast area overnight, but
scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms will continue. The
threat of gusty winds has diminished, but storms will be capable
of producing brief heavy rainfall and small hail. An upper level
disturbance will move through the region on Saturday, and generate
numerous showers and a few embedded storms, especially over
central and east central WI from morning through late afternoon.
Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR during the period of
steadier showers, then improve after the rain tapers off. VFR
conditions should return in the late afternoon and evening, along
with at least partial clearing during the evening hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
226 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
226 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late
afternoon and evening, and continue overnight. A few of the
storms during the late afternoon and evening could produce gusty
winds and hail. An isolated severe storm is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday, but
severe storms are not expected.

Patchy frost is expected over parts of northern Wisconsin both
Saturday night and Sunday night as temperatures dip into the
middle to upper 30s.

Thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday into Tuesday night, but
it is too early to determine their severe potential at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary this evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-011100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
226 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds with the storms will pose
a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and again Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The storms will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake
and bay.

Skowronski/Kallas

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             ASHWAUBENON             44.46N 88.08W
05/31/2019  E0.25 INCH       BROWN              WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

WIZ050-010400-
Manitowoc WI-
1034 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN MANITOWOC COUNTY...

At 1032 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm two
miles southeast of Valers, moving east at 40 mph.

Three quarter inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be
possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Manitowoc by 1035 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include St Nazianz, Kellners
Corners, Silver Lake College, Newton, Madsen, Clover and Newtonberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4399 8793 4414 8781 4412 8755 4410 8756
      4406 8760 4394 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 285DEG 34KT 4404 8774

Eckberg

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>