River Flood Warning 53, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
639 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Widely scattered showers or thunderstorms are
possible from late afternoon through early evening in the far
northeastern part of the state where in an area of convergence due
to terrain and lake effects, and over the higher terrain of
central and northcentral Wisconsin. They should end around dusk.

Skies should mostly clear overnight, with low temperatures close
to normal for this time of the year. Ground fog is possible for a
few hours around daybreak in river valleys and near lakes.

Thursday should be mostly sunny and a degree or so warmer and
dewpoints a degree or two higher. With a steady south wind, it
should still be comfortable.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Main weather features of interest include: upper-level high
pressure over the southwest CONUS, subtropical upper high building
west from the western Atlantic and the main band of westerlies to
run across the U.S.-Canadian border in a near zonal flow.
Temperatures to be mainly at or above normal into the middle of
next week with an increase in humidity this weekend, followed by a
decrease in humidity early next week. Main forecast challenge to
be extent of precipitation chances this weekend when warmer
temperatures/highest humidity values to be in place to feed
storms.

A cold front and associated shortwave trough are forecast to move
east across the northern Plains toward the Upper MS Valley
Thursday night. Ahead of these features, southwest winds will
continue to bring increasing WAA and low-level moisture into WI.
While the stronger lift and forcing to remain to our west through
the night, the leading edge of showers/thunderstorms could reach
north-central WI after midnight which was already covered by the
previous forecast. Otherwise, look for a gradual increase in
clouds with min temperatures primarily in the lower to middle 60s.
Due to some upper ridging to the east, this cold front/shortwave
trough will be slow-moving with the models showing the front only
impinging on northwest WI by later Friday afternoon. Gusty south-
southwest winds to continue pulling more warmth/moisture into the
region with MUCAPES of 1-2K J/KG over northeast WI and 0-6km bulk
shear of 25-35 knots. Stronger forcing remains to our west through
the day, but increasing instability/shear would lead to a chance
of showers/thunderstorms for central WI Friday morning and the
rest of the forecast area Friday afternoon. A marginal risk of
severe storms from SPC for north-central/central WI Friday
afternoon if enough instability can be realized. Max temperatures
to be around 80 degrees near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s inland.

A better chance for showers/thunderstorms to arrive Friday night
as the cold front/shortwave trough finally reach the western Great
Lakes. A few stronger storms could continue into Friday evening
before weakening as daytime heating wanes. Mild and muggy
conditions can also be expected Friday night with min temperatures
in the lower 60s north, middle to upper 60s south. Dew points to
hold in the 60s through the night. The main question headed into
Saturday will be the movement (or non-movement) of the cold front
as the shortwave trough to continue tracking east across southern
Ontario/northern Great Lakes. Models are showing different
solutions between stalling the front over central or southern WI.
As long as this boundary is in our vicinity, it would be difficult
to go with a completely dry forecast. Have introduced a small pop
across the area by Saturday afternoon to account for the front and
instability. Shear is very weak, thus severe potential would be
very low. Max temperatures on Saturday to be around 80 degrees
lakeside, middle to upper 80s inland.

As long as this frontal boundary remains quasi-stationary over the
area, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms (along
with heavy rain). This appears to be the case through the end of
the weekend, but the exact location of the boundary makes for a
low confidence on where to hit the pops the highest. Some
locations may be completely dry Saturday night, while everyone
could see rain on Sunday. Have mentioned chance pops for both
Saturday night and Sunday until this scenario becomes more clear.
Temperatures to be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s north/near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s
south.

The approach/passage of another cold front/shortwave trough will
bring additional showers/thunderstorms to the region Sunday night.
This system will bring slightly drier air to northeast WI for
Monday, but still cannot completely rule out more showers/
thunderstorms Monday afternoon as the shortwave trough and daytime
heating may set off the precipitation. Max temperatures Monday to
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

We finally get a break in the rain chances Monday night through
Tuesday as a weak area of high pressure pushes across the region.
Max temperatures by Tuesday will cool into the lower to middle 70s
north/near Lake MI, middle to upper 70s south. By the middle of
next week, the upper high over the southwest CONUS to have shifted
east and built northward as well into the central Rockies.
Anticipate various individual shortwaves to ride along the
northern periphery of the upper high and move through parts of the
Great Lakes. While a few showers may be possible, do not have
enough confidence to add pops to Wednesday's forecast yet.
Temperatures to remain near normal through Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

A couple of features to watch for the next couple hours. Area of
convection across far northeast Wisconsin has produced a gust
front that is moving south into the Fox Valley. As this front
passes through, a brief wind shift to the northeast and wind gusts
up to around 30 knots are possible. Have accounted for this in
the KGRB TAF, and will watch to see if forecast wind conditions
will need to be amended in downstream Fox Valley locations. Also
watching to see if the showers/storms in NE WI will dissipate as
meso models indicate. Kept VCSH in KGRB TAF, but low confidence
any showers would reach west of this location. Meanwhile, isolated
showers continue to linger across central WI. Expect this activity
to fade away quickly with the setting sun.

Overnight, clear skies and light winds are expected. Patchy fog
may develop in central Wisconsin near daybreak. Tuesday afternoon,
southwest winds will increase with gusts to 10 to 20 knots. There
will also be an increase in high clouds through the afternoon.

.KOSH...
Main change to the 00Z TAF was the removal of VCSH. Still cannot
completely rule out a shower this evening as showers and storms
continue to drift south across far NE WI, but the atmosphere
continues to stabilize with the loss of peak heating and short-
term models keep the activity out of the KOSH area.

Winds will be out of the southwest around 5 knots this evening.
However, currently watching a gust front move down the Bay
towards the KGRB TAF site. There is a possibility the gust front
could hold together and result in a gusty wind shift to the
northeast this evening. If this wind shift were to occur, current
timing has the gust front reaching KOSH around 0130-0200Z.

Overnight through Thursday morning, clear skies and light
southeast winds are expected. Winds increase Thursday afternoon
with gusts generally between 10 to 15 knots expected.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......KLJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-252030-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area early
this evening. The storms are not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a marginal risk of severe storms Friday into Friday
night across central and north-central Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall
is also possible with the storms.

Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves may result in
hazardous conditions at Lake Michigan beaches Friday afternoon and
evening.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Friday into Monday.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over central
Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Friday night. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main threats. It is too early to
determine if the storms over the weekend would pose a severe
weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-252030-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms may pose a hazard to boaters at times Friday night
into early next week.

Gusty south to southwest winds and building waves could produce
hazardous conditions for small craft on Lake Michigan Friday and
Friday night.

RDM/AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
610 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW CHAMBERS ISLAND   45.20N 87.36W
07/24/2019  M51.00 MPH       DOOR               WI   C-MAN STATION

&&

KURIMSKI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

WIZ031-038>040-050-250030-
Shawano WI-Kewaunee WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
637 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

...GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from near Gillett to 6 miles east of Pulaski to near Green
Bay to near Bay Shore Park to near Algoma. Movement was southwest at
35 mph.

Winds around 30 mph will be possible with this gust front.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Shawano, Kewaunee, Kaukauna, Little Chute,
Kimberly, Pulaski, Luxemburg and Denmark.

People at Downtown Green Bay should consider seeking safe shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
winds diminish.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 8854 4449 8874 4459 8874 4459 8861
      4468 8861 4468 8890 4486 8863 4485 8833
      4478 8825 4468 8824 4468 8812 4463 8807
      4458 8794 4459 8739 4428 8758 4424 8809
      4424 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 043DEG 29KT 4495 8839 4463 8809 4458 8797 4458
8779 4459 8752

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
638 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW MARINETTE         45.13N 87.64W
07/24/2019  M37.00 MPH       MENOMINEE          MI   AWOS

&&

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
659 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW CHAMBERS ISLAND   45.20N 87.36W
07/24/2019  M51.00 MPH       DOOR               WI   C-MAN STATION

0504 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 ENE MARINETTE         45.10N 87.58W
07/24/2019  U0.00 MPH        LMZ521             WI   911 CALL CENTER

            BOAT OVERTURNED AND WASHED UP ON SHORE.

0512 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NE MARINETTE          45.10N 87.59W
07/24/2019  M44.00 MPH       MENOMINEE          MI   C-MAN STATION

0514 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW MARINETTE         45.13N 87.64W
07/24/2019  M37.00 MPH       MENOMINEE          MI   AWOS

&&

KURIMSKI

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