River Flood Warning 40, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system over southern Lake
Michigan just east of Port Washington, Wisconsin as evidenced by
the curl in the IR imagery. Rain will continue to wind down across
east-central Wisconsin this morning as this low continues moving
east and high pressure builds in across the western Great Lakes
region. The high will bring drier air with mostly sunny skies
later this morning and into the afternoon hours as high
temperatures range from the middle to upper 50s across the north,
with highs of 60 to 65 across the south.

The high will drift slowly southeast tonight, as dry weather and
mostly clear skies continue. An approaching low will bring
increasing clouds to the north Wednesday afternoon, however dry
weather is expected to continue across the area. Lows tonight will
be in the 30s, with highs on Wednesday climbing into the middle
60s to around 70 degrees.

Much of the area only received around one half of an inch
of rain from this system, save for a thin swath of 1 to 2 inches
along a line from Algoma, to Green Bay, to Appleton, to Omro.
Given this thin swath of heavy rain is mainly outside of the area
of central and northeast Wisconsin that got copious amounts of
rain last week and with only light rain in the forecast for the
next few days will cancel the Flood Watch for the area with the
new forecast package.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Much of the next week will be characterized by low amplitude flow
across the northern tier of the conus, which will keep temps near to
above normal into the start of the weekend.  As the jet stream sags
south, temps will likely fall below normal this weekend into early
next week.  Forecast concerns, however, generally revolve around
precip chances due to high water levels and fast flows on area
rivers.  The models generally have some differences with the
forecast rainfall on Wednesday night night and Thursday.  Since it
appears that much of the moisture will get soaked up by low pressure
over the Ohio Valley, will put more stock into the lower qpf
producing solutions, like the ecmwf. A second round of precip is
then possible over the weekend, but the spread is rather large so
will stick with a general model blend.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Shortwave energy moving
across the northern Great Lakes will push a cold front across the
region during the Wednesday night into Thursday time period.  Will
see a ribbon of higher dewpoints accompany the front, but its
difficult to find much in the way of instability or higher values of
moisture transport along the front.  As a result, precip looks
likely along the front, but amounts look relatively light, perhaps
up to a quarter inch.  The chance of precip will likely end on
Thursday afternoon and will see clearing behind the front for
Thursday night. With the clouds and rainfall, temps on Thursday will
be cooler than on Wednesday.

Rest of the forecast...Temps will continue there cooling trend on
Friday into Saturday thanks to passage of a secondary cold front.
Otherwise, will be watching the track of a low pressure system
during the Friday night into Saturday time period.  A farther north
track could lead to a more substantial precip threat than depicted
in the ecmwf solution.  Temps may also be cold enough for some
flakes over parts of the area on late Friday night and early
Saturday morning. Cooler weather will continue into early next week
with another chance of precip on next Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Mainly MVFR, with a few IFR, cigs will linger over the TAF sites
this morning as a low pressure system continues to pull away from
the western Great Lakes region. High pressure will bring drier air
to the region, causing VFR conditions to prevail later this
morning and through tonight. Gusty northerly winds of 20 to 25
knots will ease late this afternoon and into the evening hours.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Much of the area only received around one half of an inch
of rain from this system, save for a thin swath of 1 to 2 inches
along a line from Algoma, to Green Bay, to Appleton, to Omro.
Given this thin swath of heavy rain is mainly outside of the area
of central and northeast Wisconsin that got copious amounts of
rain last week and with only light rain in the forecast for the
next few days will cancel the Flood Watch for the area. Despite
the cancellation of the Flood Watch, additional rises in river
levels are expected across central and northeast Wisconsin as this
latest rain filters into the local tributaries. Please monitor the
latest river forecasts for further information on flooding in your
local area.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-240830-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rainfall over the past 24 hours may lead to further river rises
across the area. Keep up to date with the latest river forecasts
if you live near a river or stream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

High water levels and fast flows are expected to remain on area
rivers through the end of the work week. Residents who live along
rivers and streams should keep a close eye on river levels, and
be prepared to move to higher ground. Boaters and fishermen should
also use caution due to hazardous currents on fast-moving rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any flooding to the National
Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-240830-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
328 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty north to northwest winds and building waves will result in
hazardous conditions for small craft through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Kurimski/MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
721 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE ALLOUEZ           44.47N 87.97W
04/23/2019  M1.49 INCH       BROWN              WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-BN-14 GREEN BAY 3.8 SSE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OMRO              44.02N 88.78W
04/23/2019  M1.43 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WN-7 OMRO 1 WSW.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE AURORAVILLE        43.99N 88.94W
04/23/2019  M1.42 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BLNW3 BERLIN WWTP.

0712 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OMRO                    44.03N 88.75W
04/23/2019  M1.36 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW3427 OMRO.

0707 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OMRO                    44.03N 88.75W
04/23/2019  M1.36 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW3427 OMRO.

0706 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW GREEN BAY         44.49N 88.01W
04/23/2019  M1.32 INCH       BROWN              WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7911 ALLOUEZ.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW MENASHA           44.20N 88.47W
04/23/2019  M1.32 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION OSKW3 FOX RIVER.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S MACKVILLE           44.31N 88.41W
04/23/2019  M1.25 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-OG-16 MACKVILLE 2 S.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
848 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW CASCO             44.55N 87.62W
04/23/2019  M1.72 INCH       KEWAUNEE           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CCOW3 CASCO.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE WRIGHTSTOWN       44.40N 88.14W
04/23/2019  M1.56 INCH       BROWN              WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-BN-20 WRIGHTSTOWN 4 NNE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WRIGHTSTOWN             44.33N 88.17W
04/23/2019  M1.45 INCH       BROWN              WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-BN-22 WRIGHTSTOWN 0.4 ENE.

0837 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OMRO                    44.03N 88.75W
04/23/2019  M1.36 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW3427 OMRO.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N APPLETON            44.29N 88.39W
04/23/2019  M1.34 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-OG-7 APPLETON 1 N.

0836 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW GREEN BAY         44.49N 88.01W
04/23/2019  M1.32 INCH       BROWN              WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7911 ALLOUEZ.

&&