Frost Advisory 4, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
218 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Scattered rain showers mixed with snow at times, was moving across
central and northeast Wisconsin. The precipitation was mainly in
the form of snow across north-central Wisconsin. It was a cold
October afternoon with temperatures in the middle 30s north
to the lower 40s south.

For tonight, main concern is for freezing temperatures across
the Fox Valley east to the lake. Numerical guidance has been
too warm the last few nights, thus lower than normal confidence
in temperatures reaching the freezing mark. Decided to issue
a Special Weather Statement (SPS) to highlight the low
temperatures near or slightly above freezing for the Fox Valley
east to the lake where frost/freeze headlines are still being
issued. Clouds will be on the decrease tonight, especially across
eastern Wisconsin while the clouds are expected to remain across
north-central into central Wisconsin. The rain/snow showers should
come to an end by mid evening.

On Monday, it should start mostly cloudy across the north with
decreasing clouds through the day. Partly cloudy skies will
prevail across the remainder of the region. Did not stray far
from numerical guidance for high temperatures. It will remain cool
with high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

The start of the long term forecast remains in a cooler and
somewhat active weather pattern, with the primary focus on Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A warmer weather setup is expected by the end
of the week.

Monday evening through Wednesday: Expect at least partial clearing
at the start of Monday night, then with fading influence from the
ridge cloud cover will increase with a chance for light
precipitation across central Wisconsin near daybreak.

Tuesday becomes the main period of interest in the long term
forecast as a strong mid-level shortwave and surface low approach
WI from the west. Rain is the main precip type, however a brief
period of mixed precip or light snow showers are possible across
northern WI at the onset and again as the system pulls away.
Expect pcpn to develop from west to east across the forecast area
Tuesday morning with the primary push of WAA ahead of the sfc low.
Forcing is strong but the window of opportunity is short- lived.
Showers will become more widely scattered to isolated during the
afternoon as a dry slot wraps up into the area. A few claps of
thunder cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon as models continue
to show around 100 to 200 J/kg of CAPE across central and east-
central WI (coinciding with the SPC's Day 3 General Thunder
outlook). Lingering rain and/or snow showers are possible Tuesday
evening through Wednesday morning due to wrap around moisture
coming back across northern Wisconsin and NW winds over Lake
Superior. This activity should remain light and scattered. No snow
accumulations are forecast. Rain amounts during this are forecast
to range from a few hundreths across central and east- central WI,
to up to half an inch across far northern Wisconsin.

Rest of the week/weekend: A pattern shift is still on pace to
begin Thursday as surface and upper level ridging take place and
southerly winds help drive a warmer airmass into the state. Highs
will be near 50 degrees on Thursday, then in the mid 50s to low
60s on Friday through the weekend. Rain is possible later Friday,
Saturday, and again on Sunday, but confidence is low at this time
due to model differences and consistency.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Scattered rain showers central and east-central and more snow
shower activity across the north will gradually diminish later
this afternoon, then across the north tonight. Gusty southwest
to west winds to around 25 knots are possible this afternoon
before subsiding around sunset. CIGS will run mainly in the
MVFR category early this afternoon across much of the area,
this rise into the VFR category across central and east-central
Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGS will
continue across the north into Monday morning. MVFR CIGS
across central Wisconsin (KAUW/KCWA/KMFI/KISW) may rise into
the VFR category for a period of time tonight before falling
back into the MVFR category towards sunrise on Monday.
Could be some patchy IFR CIGS across the far north late
tonight. Any MVFR CIGS Monday morning will rise into the
VFR category around midday across the north.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
212 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-141915-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
212 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Temperatures will fall to near or just above freezing across the
Fox Valley and Lakeshore areas tonight. Precautions should be
taken to protect cold sensitive plants.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-141915-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
212 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Winds and waves will continue to gradually subside tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening. Hazard conditions for small craft are
possible again late in the week.

Eckberg/KLJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

WIZ038>040-048>050-073-074-132245-
Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
243 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

...LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...

Many locations near the Bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan have
not seen the first freeze of the fall. Later tonight clouds will
decrease and winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph, allowing
temperatures to fall to near or slightly above the freezing mark.

There is still some uncertainty if temperatures will fall to the
freezing mark for a few hours late tonight, thus precautions
should still be taken to protect cold sensitive plants from
freezing temperatures.

&&

Eckberg