Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
619 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the expected areas north
of Interstate 70 in response to shortwave trough coming out of
southeast Wyoming around an upper low centered in the northern
plains. Expect this activity to continue to slide generally east
with stronger storms more southeast. Another cluster is expected
to move out of northeast Colorado this evening over the same
general area. Already had a report of golf ball sized hail near
Imperial, Nebraska, with initial activity, so cannot rule out
some isolated large hail with first cluster, then probably more of
a wind threat with the second cluster this evening as instability
declines but sufficient dcape persists. Convection will gradually
weaken and diminish during the overnight hours. Low temperatures
will be in the 50s.

The synoptic set up for Monday changes very little. There is
perhaps a slight southern shift in the track of the incoming
shortwave trough compared to today, and the wave appears a little
stronger. Instability also will be higher, peaking at around 2500
j/kg at 00z compared to 1500 j/kg today. Deep layer shear will be
slightly weaker, however, around 25 kts. All of this translates to
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Will
have to monitor for flash flooding as well, with repeated heavy
rainfall in the same areas. High temperatures on Monday will be in
the lower 80s and lows Monday night in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Synopsis... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the Tri-State area Tuesday morning through the overnight hours to
early Wednesday. While some isolated severe weather with damaging
winds and large hail cannot be totally ruled out, the main weather threat
Tuesday will be flash flooding with the highest potential in
locations which receive significant rainfall Monday and again
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms stick around through
the afternoon and early evening hours Wednesday when again severe
weather will be possible with the main threats being damaging
winds and large hail. Drier weather is expected Wednesday evening
through the late afternoon hours Thursday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for much of the Tri-State area
Thursday afternoon and evening.

The weekend continues to look wet with chances for showers and
thunderstorms for at least some large portions of the forecast area
Friday through Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening
hours. Severe weather cannot be ruled out for next weekend at this
time. High temperatures will be in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday
before warming up to the 80s Thursday and Friday, then cooling down
to the upper 70s to low 80s for next weekend. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 50s throughout the long term forecast period.

Discussion... A weak upper-level trough over the far southwestern
United States will bring increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the Central High Plains throughout the day on
Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. As this trough weakens, strong
northwest flow will develop aloft over the Tri-State area which will
lead to the formation of progressive upper-level shortwave troughs.
These shortwave troughs will keep the chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast Wednesday through Thursday, especially
in the afternoon and evening hours.

By Thursday afternoon, a strong longwave upper-level trough begins
to deepen over the northern portion of the Mountain West. This
strengthening trough will promote widespread upper-level support for
ascent and repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday
evening through this coming weekend, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours when instability will be at the greatest. Even as this
upper-level trough exits the region Saturday, another developing
longwave trough will develop over the western United States and
bring persistent chances for showers and thunderstorms to the
Central High Plains through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 619 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at GLD terminal.  Winds will
shift to the north as an outflow boundary moves from north to
south through the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the vicinity of the terminal through this evening.
Winds will die down around 03Z, picking up again mid-to late
afternoon Monday. Toward the end of the TAF period, a few showers
and thunderstorms may develop.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at MCK terminal for the
majority of the forecast period. Gusty winds and brief window for
thunderstorms will be possible through around 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...AW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
325 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-170930-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
325 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019 /425 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible north of Interstate 70
in northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and extreme northwest
Kansas late Sunday afternoon and evening. Quarter size hail and wind
gusts up to 65 mph will be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Tri-
State area on Monday and Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible on both days, primarily during the
late afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

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