Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move out of northeast
Colorado and across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska this
evening as shortwave trough ejects across the area, exiting to
the north by around 07z. Severe threat will be limited to about
04z, then wane as boundary layer cools. Primary hazard will be
wind gusts of up to 60 mph with favorable DCAPE environment/relatively
high bases, followed by a marginal threat of hail up to quarter
sized, and finally a low end risk for locally heavy rainfall.
Clouds will persist through the night with breezy north winds.
Lows will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 50s in
north central Kansas. Clouds will persist into Monday with perhaps
some partial clearing late in northern areas. As a result,
temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. North winds will be gusty and strongest in the morning,
then slowly diminish in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

While near term models show a decent amount of disagreement with
how southern plains H5 trough evolves, consensus still appears
that system will track well to the south of the area with only
slim chances of light precipitation glancing the southern CWA.
After system departs, medium range models in reasonable agreement
that ridging will build over the area through the weekend.
Differences emerge with the amplification and strength of the ridge,
with the GFS being a bit more amplified than other available
guidance.

Regardless of preferred solution, seems like weather will be
fairly quiet from Tuesday through Thursday as temperatures slowly
warm, but surface flow does not look really favorable for any
meaningful moisture return until Thursday Night and Friday as sfc
high shifts east and strong southerly flow develops again. Should
we get enough moisture/instability development shear profile with
fast zonal flow would support some organized/severe storms, but
details at this point remain very unclear. Main forecast changes
to available guidance were to nudge temperatures to warmer end of
distribution/ensemble data, although potential for mountain cirrus
limiting insolation a bit concerning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Main aviation concern will be thunderstorm chances this afternoon
and tonight at both KGLD and KMCK. Expecting a line of storms to
develop south of KGLD by mid afternoon which will progress
northward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds
and small hail may accompany the storms at KGLD, but with later
arrival time at KMCK do not expect storms to be as strong.
Thunderstorm threat will end by 04z at KGLD and 07z at KMCK.
During the overnight, models show MVFR ceilings moving into the
area from the north and persisting through Monday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
330 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2019 /430 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly along and north
of highway 40 in the 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) to 11 PM MDT (midnight CDT)
timeframe. Wind gusts to 65 mph, large hail and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threats. The strong outflow winds will
produce some blowing dust and reduced visibilities in spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed.

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