Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

As of 2 PM MT, convective initiation had begun to develop
southeast of our CWA in PUB area, along the front. Expecting these
storms to continue to develop and move north northeast into our
area.

Looking aloft we can see a deep upper-level trough to our west,
and this afternoon, a shortwave is expected to push across the
area. The addition of a shortwave moving through the area, will
also aid in generating lift. Main concern for today will be flash
flooding in the later evening / overnight hours, with lesser
chances of strong winds to 60 mph and large hail up to an inch
earlier this afternoon. High PWATs and training thunderstorms will
help aid in generating moderate to heavy rainfall for most of our
central CWA.

Storms are expected to relax and die off after sunset as
convective inhibition increases with the loss of the daytime
heating, more stratiform like precipitation will develop. Winds
will increase across the area as a low-level jet surges from the
southwest bringing in LLWS concerns for our aviation partners.

Second round of convection will hit our area Friday afternoon,
but the extend of convection will be determined by today's
storms. Depending how overworked the atmosphere is from today,
will aid in determining how much instability we will have
tomorrow. Confidence is low to medium on exact location and
timing. Flash flooding threats will decrease Friday, but we will
have better chances of large hail, up to 2 inches, severe winds up
to 70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two.

Today and tomorrow's highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
overnight lows in the mid 50s the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A trough axis extends from the northern Plains southwest into the
southwestern U.S. Saturday. The axis crosses the Tri-State region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A ridge moves over the central
U.S. Monday night as a trough moves over the Intermountain West. The
trough moves into the central U.S. Monday into Tuesday. Strong
opposing high and low pressure create northwest flow directly into
the central Plains region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A weak
ridge moves across the central U.S. Thursday as another trough
forms over the northwestern U.S.

By Saturday morning, a cold front traverses across the Tri-State region.
High pressure moves in behind the front Saturday night. Leeside
troughing sets up along the Front Range Sunday night into Monday
morning. Another frontal boundary is expected to make its' way
into the northern portions of the CWA by Wednesday before stalling
along the Kansas/Nebraska border.

The extended forecast period looks pretty dry with the exception
of Saturday and Monday night. High temperatures are expected to
range from the mid-70s to 80s with lows in the mid-40s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the start of the TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at the Goodland and McCook terminals. This afternoon, we
will see showers and storms developing across the Tri-State area,
but confidence on exact timing and location is low at this time.
Terminals impacted will experience lower decks and reduced
visibilities from heavy rainfall.

Tonight, a strong low-level jet will develop bringing in stronger
winds. Expecting several hours of LLWS from around 6Z through 10Z
tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1156 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201800-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1156 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 /1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of
the Colorado border this afternoon and tonight. At this time, the
main threats will be locally heavy rainfall, with a lesser chance of
large hail up to an inch and gusty winds to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Friday afternoon through the overnight hours, severe thunderstorms
are possible. Threats include large hail up to 2 inches, damaging
winds up to 70 mph, isolated tornado or two, and locally heavy
rainfall that could produce flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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