Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Overview: WNW-NW flow aloft will prevail over the region, on the
NE periphery of an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest.

Today-Tonight: A weak SFC-H85 cyclone centered in extreme
northeast CO at 17Z will track ESE into northwest KS this evening
as a small amplitude shortwave in southeast Wyoming (per 17Z WV
imagery and SPC Mesoanalysis) progresses ESE through southwest NE
into north-central KS. Surface observations and radar data show a
thermal/moisture boundary associated with the aforementioned
cyclone stretching SW-NE from Burlington->Saint Francis->Trenton,
extending N-NW from Trenton to Ogallala NE. HRRR simulated
reflectivity forecasts suggest that isolated convection will
develop along the SW-NE oriented TMB in northwest KS (perhaps just
S or E of Goodland) ~21-22Z this afternoon, progressing east into
central KS this evening (by ~03-04Z). Though convection may be
somewhat disorganized in nature at onset -- very steep mid-level
lapse rates (~9 C/km), 30-40 knots effective deep layer shear,
moderate to strong instability (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and extreme
DCAPE (1500-1800 J/kg) suggest a potential for isolated high-
based supercells capable of producing very large hail and
significant damaging wind, primarily in E|NE portions of the area
late this aft/eve (23-03Z) -- when flow aloft /deep-layer shear/
strengthen in advance of the approaching shortwave. Thereafter,
activity is anticipated to rapidly grow upscale and track E-ESE
across central/eastern KS.

Friday-Friday night: The convective forecast in this period will
highly depend on mesoscale features emanating from convection
developing over the region this evening/tonight (and the impact
thereof on the thermodynamic environment over), the evolution of
upstream convection over the northern Rockies (and it's impact on
downstream height/wind fields), and small amplitude tropopause
disturbances (~250 mb level) progressing from the northern Rockies
into the Central/Northern Plains via WNW/NW flow aloft. With this
in mind -- significant uncertainty persists with regard to
when/where convection may develop, let alone convective
mode/evolution/hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019

The main story with the extended forecast will be dry conditions and
temperatures near to above normal.

Saturday morning, the Tri-State area will be under northwest flow as an
upper ridge over the Western U.S. slowly progresses eastward
through the day. Temperatures may be hampered early in the day due
to lingering clouds and showers, particularly in the northeastern
part of the forecast area. Chances for precipitation are not
great, but cannot be entirely ruled out as a shortwave trough
exits the area. Highs are expected to be in the mid-70s to low 80s
across the region.

High pressure will become centered over the Four Corners region Sunday.
The ridge will remain over the western half of the U.S. and the
Central High Plains. Am anticipating a return to the 80s and 90s
both Sunday and Monday as southerly winds help our temperatures.
Models are showing an upper level trough coming ashore over the
Pacific Northwest Monday morning. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a
closed low developing and progressing eastward through the day. Do
not anticipate an impact in the Tri-State region to start out the
week.

May have a weak low trying to form east of the Rockies on Tuesday.
Weak convergence may be enough to kick off a stray shower or storm
Tuesday evening, but at this point in time, confidence in this is
very low. Shortwave trough may move through the region Thursday.
Did mention slight PoPs as it moves through, but confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019

The 00Z TAF at MCK will be starting out with a strong
thunderstorms moving across the site that will be moving out of
the vicinity by 02Z. Conditions will be VFR and will continue VFR
into Friday morning. After 14Z, lower clouds will spread across
the region with MVFR conditions due to lower ceilings along with
thunderstorms developing after 20Z.

GLD will be VFR through about mid day on Friday. After 17Z,
conditions will become MVFR due to lower ceilings moving in along
with thunderstorms developing after 22Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-302030-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
228 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2019 /328 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated supercell thunderstorms capable of producing very
large hail and destructive straight line winds will be possible along
and east of Highway 25 between 3 pm and 8 pm MDT. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska until 9 pm MDT, 10 pm CDT this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
the Tri-State area Friday evening. Thunderstorms may persist late
Friday evening into Friday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible in association with any thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters and storm chasers are encouraged to report any
severe or hazardous weather associated with thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Thank you.

Vincent

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