Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
656 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Training convection has been persistent in Sheridan and Graham
counties this morning and afternoon, tied to an outflow boundary
from overnight storms. That boundary has moved west as evident on
radar and is approaching the Colorado state line. As a result,
thinking the storms out east will finally be on the decline.

Tonight, thunderstorms will develop near the Front Range by 21Z
with approach of a fairly strong shortwave in the central Rockies
and propagate eastward as an MCS across the entire area tonight.
Initial development in northeast Colorado will be in a marginally
favorable environment for supercells, so there will be a window
for large hail and possibly a tornado between about 22z and 03z,
but as storms coalesce into an MCS by around 03Z near the Colorado
and Kansas state line the threat will transition to damaging
winds and flash flooding from heavy rainfall. The MCS will reach
eastern parts of the area around 06z with a continued risk for
damaging winds and flash flooding. Rainfall will persist past 06z,
but severe threat will diminish during the overnight hours. There
may be some patchy fog overnight and into the morning hours in the
wake of the MCS. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger into Saturday
morning in eastern areas with outflow boundaries and even some
upper support from the shortwave which will still be over the area
at 12z. Assuming we can clear out and get some surface heating,
scattered storms will redevelop in the afternoon and evening with
best chances in eastern areas closest to the upper support. The
clouds may end up reducing the threat for severe storms, but still
in a marginal risk so cannot totally discount. Marginally severe
wind and hail would be the hazards. High temperatures will again
depend on the cloud cover, but trended towards the cooler
guidance, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in the
west where better chance for more sun. Low temperatures Saturday
night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Will start the period under northwest flow with a ridge over the
Great Basin and a trough near the Great Lakes. Appears to be
occasional embedded shortwaves in the flow which will bring daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Hard to rule out at least a
marginal risk for any day Sunday through about Tuesday with the
flow aloft and low level moisture, but details beyond that hard to
pin down at this time range. For the Wednesday through Friday
period, western ridge begins to expand over the Rockies. Still
seeing shortwaves rotating around the ridge, so will continue to
have POPs but only slight to low chance as confidence in coverage
decreases as upper ridge gets closer.

Temperatures during the entire long term period will be slightly
below normal, with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to develop at both terminals later
this evening into tonight. Thunderstorms are anticipated to
affect the GLD terminal this evening, primarily between 03-06Z.
Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at the MCK terminal, however,
confidence is low, and explicit mention thereof has been removed
from the MCK TAF. Breezy southeasterly winds will prevail through
this evening, decreasing overnight. Gusty/erratic winds will be
possible in vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
712 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-250115-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
712 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 /812 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect along and west of
Highway 25 until 10 pm MDT this evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail and localized
flash flooding are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail
and wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible Saturday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or hazardous weather
associated with thunderstorms this evening.

Vincent

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