Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

The focus for the short term forecast is on the chance of
thunderstorms and the potential for severe storms moving across
the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

With an uncapped atmosphere and good instabilities existing across
the forecast area mainly where surface dewpoints are in the middle
to upper 60s ahead of a surface trough, along with surface
convergence near the surface trough and a short wave trough aloft
approaching in the upper westerly flow, expect the storms
developing over the higher terrain to the west to grow and become
more numerous through the afternoon and into the evening as they
tap into the additional moisture available mainly east of the
Colorado border. Expect scattered storms to develop and move
through the area mainly between 3pm-11pm this afternoon and
tonight. While large hail is possible with some of the stronger
storms, the primary threat appears to be damaging winds gusts that
could be 65 mph or greater.

The past few days models have been advertising the possibility of
fog developing across the forecast area in the wake of storms
moving across the region. However, in the latest runs, the
production of fog has diminished with only isolated locations
seeing a possibility of fog. Have removed a mention of fog as a
result, but this will need to be watched over the next few days as
there is the potential of some locations to receive rainfall
followed by clearing skies and light winds that would be conducive
to the production of fog.

Once the short wave trough aloft moves through the region
overnight tonight, an upper ridge will begin to amplify over the
southern Rockies and southern and central high plains region
through mid day Tuesday. Also expect mainly high pressure across
the region during that time that will initially cool the
temperatures somewhat on Sunday with highs mainly in the 80s that
will quickly rebound into the 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Tuesday morning, an upper level ridge will extend over the Central High Plains
with ridge axis just to our west, over the Rockies. A surface
high will be in place over the southeastern U.S. and the Tri-State
area will be under southwest flow aloft. Through the day, flow
will become zonal over the region and a lee cyclone is expected to
develop Tuesday afternoon. Expected high temperatures will be in
the 90s.

A cold front will move into the area from the north during the day Wednesday.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s and
lows in the 50s and 60s. The cooler temperatures will continue
into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on
Wednesday. Thursday, additional chances for showers and storms
will be possible as a shortwave moves through the region.

Friday into Saturday, temperatures will rebound back to near
normal, ranging form the mid-80s to low 90s across the area. Lows
will return to the low to mid-60s. Currently not anticipating
precipitation for Friday into the start of the weekend. The ridge
will shift east, over the forecast area. Models are indicating a
possible shortwave moving in from the northwest at the end of the
forecast period, however, taking into account this is seven days
out and disagreement in models, have opted to keep the forecast
dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected at MCK and
GLD through the 18Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop and move across the region late this
afternoon and evening. These storms may impact the GLD site 00-03Z
and the MCK site between 01-04Z. Given the less than 50% chance
of occurrence, VCTS has been added to the TAFs during those time
periods.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1053 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1053 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019 /1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop between 3 PM and 10 PM
MDT. The main risks will be hail up to two inches in diameter and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. The threat for hail will be
primarily west of a Trenton, Nebraska to Colby and Leoti, Kansas
line. However the threat for damaging winds will extend across the
entire forecast area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday through Wednesday night, locally heavy rainfall and severe
thunderstorms may occur across the central High Plains region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
307 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

COZ090-091-172145-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
307 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 306 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Bethune, or 14 miles northwest of Burlington, moving
east at 20 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bonny Reservoir and Hale.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 442 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 190 and 215.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central Colorado...and northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3958 10256 3976 10205 3928 10205 3937 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 258DEG 17KT 3948 10242

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

COZ090-091-172215-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
323 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YUMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Cope, or 21 miles north of Stratton, moving east
at 5 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Joes and Kirk.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3967 10280 3980 10242 3950 10237 3952 10276
      3959 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 256DEG 5KT 3961 10270

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
326 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-172145-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
326 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...WESTERN CHEYENNE AND NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES
IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 345 PM MDT/445 PM CDT/...

At 326 PM MDT/426 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles west of St.
Francis to 7 miles north of Kanorado. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis, Bonny Reservoir, Hale and Beecher Island.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT/1100
PM CDT/ for northeastern and east central Colorado...and northwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 10179 3934 10176 3938 10221 3990 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 269DEG 12KT 3982 10207 3945 10206

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
341 PM MDT SAT AUG 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             9 SSE BEECHER ISLAND    39.76N 102.08W
08/17/2019  E0.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF PEA TO HALF INCH SIZED HAIL.

&&

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