Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

The primary concern in the short term forecast period is the
potential for scattered thunderstorms moving across the forecast
area late this afternoon and evening that may produce severe
weather including hail 2" in diameter or larger in addition to
winds of 65 mph or more.

Storms will initially develop over the higher terrain to the west
early this afternoon and are expected to continue eastward across
the plains late this afternoon and evening. As storms continue
east over the Goodland forecast area, they will encounter a
surface convergent area near a nearly stationary frontal boundary
along with a more moisture rich boundary layer on the north side
of the front where dewpoints are in the middle to upper 60s.
A short wave trough identified in the westerly flow aloft will
also be moving east of the Rockies and across the forecast area
this evening. This should help drive the storms further east
across the forecast area through the evening where storms are
expected to transition from a large hail threat to more of a wind
threat if the storms continue to develop into an MCS moving across
northern Kansas. There may be areas of fog developing in the wake
of the storms overnight tonight that will continue into early
Saturday, although most recent model output has downplayed the
potential for fog.

Conditions on Saturday will be similar to today with models
showing a lower potential for thunderstorms across the forecast
area and the favored area of severe storms shifting further east
over the plains states. Surface dewpoints will be in the middle to
upper 60s again north and east of a nearly stationary surface
frontal boundary along with another slightly weaker short wave
trough embedded in the upper flow moving across the region and
extending into the northern plains late in the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Forecast concern be the next active/wet period at the beginning of
next week. Current satellite showing a highly amplified, and even
blocky, pattern over the Pacific and slightly into western North
America. To the east of this the country is in a broad trough with
zonal/nearly zonal flow.

Sunday/Sunday night...Shortwave and thunderstorms move through the
night before. This is followed by shortwave ridging, drier air mass,
and 700 mb temperatures of at least +17C. So little lift around plus
air mass looks capped. Forecast blend is dry and that looks good for
now.

Monday/Monday night...Some mid level troughing/shortwave trough
tries to move into/through at least the western portion of the area
during the afternoon and nighttime hours. However height rises look
to be taking place as the southern plains ridge builds into the
area. Also the 700 mb temperatures remain about the same or even
increase from Sunday values. So again looks like it will be capped.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Pattern begins to shift/reorganize which
always throws a higher degree uncertainty into the forecast. The
upper ridge starts pulling back to the west, a scenario usually do
not well in. Heights still remain fairly high with weak shortwave
trough(s) expected during this time. Cap could still be strong as
well.

So lift aloft looks to be weak and could be mostly driven by
mesoscale processes. In addition, models are showing that a front
will sag into the north, sometime around midday into the nighttime.
So how this all works together is somehow uncertain. Forecast blend
starts with a slight chance in the afternoon and increases to chance
during that time and that looks fine at this time. What will need to
be watched is the possibility of heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding since storm motions will be less than 10 knots and
precipitable water values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range.

Wednesday through Friday...Mid/upper level ridge continues to pull
back to the west through this period and will be roughly centered
near the 4 corners area. However the models disagree on how much and
fast they do it so which determines the position and strength of the
shortwave troughs moving through. Also a synoptic boundary will be
near the southern of the area or over the area.

There will more than likely be mesoscale boundaries around. Current
forecast blend has a higher and more widespread chances of rainfall
than Thursday. However can see where pops could be raised once we
get closer to that time period. Locally heavy rainfall looks to be a
continued threat from Thursday afternoon into the night.

Uncertain continues to Friday based on above although stronger
ridging looks to be in place. So the dry to slight chance conditions
look to be fine at this time. Temperatures will get hot Monday into
Tuesday before the cool-down happens on Wednesday. This looks
reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 450 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Showers/thunderstorms are expected to move across the area
possibly impacting the terminal in the 01z-03z timeframe with a
lesser chance up until 05z at this time. Gusty outflow winds to
40kts possible and if a storm directly impacts the terminal a
period of locally heavy rainfall and sub vfr cigs possible.
Winds outside the thunderstorms generally from the east-southeast
near 10kts. After 06z winds light and variable becoming south then
southeast at speeds under 10kts in the afternoon. Another chance
of thunderstorms possible after 23z.

KMCK, vfr conditions through about 10z. Showers/thunderstorms
possible in the 02z-06z timeframe. Winds generally from the east
to east-southeast around 10kts except near thunderstorms. From
07z-15z sub vfr cigs/vis in stratus possible. After 15z vfr
conditions return with a south wind 10kts or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
338 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
338 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019 /438 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms, with a few storms becoming severe, will
develop over eastern Colorado this afternoon and move across
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska this evening. Large hail will
be the initial threat with a transition to damaging winds through
the evening. Hail of two inches or greater is possible along with
winds of 65 mph or greater. The time frame for severe thunderstorms
will be mainly between 4 PM and 10 PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms developing along a
nearly stationary front late Saturday afternoon and evening. Hail up
to half dollar size along with damaging winds will be the primary
threats as storms continue east across the central High Plains.

Tuesday through Wednesday night could see locally heavy rainfall
with thunderstorms that are expected to develop and move across the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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