Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Updated the forecast to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 in
effect until 9 PM MDT this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Today, we will see once again warm surface temperatures, in the
mid to upper 80s, moderate deep-layer shear and instability, steep
lapse rates, prevailing again over our CWA. Although the threat
is slightly less today, our strongest threats will once again be
along the Colorado / Kansas border. We are expecting another round
of discrete supercells producing large hail, up to 3 inches,
damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a potential tornado or two. This
will be followed by transitioning to a wind threat in the evening.
Additional forcing from a shortwave will aid in sustaining
convective development into the late overnight hours, which flash
flooding will continue to be a concern.

Thursday, we may see a few severe storms. SPC currently has our
area split diagonally between a slight risk to a marginal risk.
Tonight's convection will help to aid or lessen the extent to how
much the environment will get worked over. Regardless, expecting
convective development with peak afternoon heating and lasting
through the evening hours. Guidance is still quite a bit in
disagreement as to what will happen, so confidence remains low at
this time as to extent of impacts to the Tri-State area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the extended period...upper level flow at 500 mb starts off
zonal on Thursday night with a flat upper ridge over the southern
half of the country. Several shortwaves will be moving thru the
central Plains along the northern periphery of the ridge. Going into
the upcoming weekend...pattern shift in the upper flow as both the
GFS/ECMWF begin to nose the ridge into the Plains from the
southwest. This will be aided in part by a digging shortwave into
the Pacific northwest. Ridge will become further amplified going
into the first half of next as upper flow becomes more
southwesterly.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms into the first
portions of the weekend and again by the midway portion of next
week. The in-between period will be affected by the building ridge.

PW values are lower for a good portion of the extended ranging from
0.75"-1.00" but any storms that occur could have locally heavy
rainfall potential...especially the eastern half of the area. There
is some instability as well which could afford the CWA some
strong/severe storm potential...but will be dependent on the
location/strength of the surface features associated with the
passing shortwaves.

For temps...a shift from zonal to SW flow aloft will afford the
region a warming trend that will have daytime highs in the mid to
upper 80s to start...but lift into the mid 90s by midweek next week.
Overnight lows will trend from mainly upper 50s Thursday night to
mid/upper 60s by next Tuesday/Wednesday nights. Low daytime RH
values in the 20s-30s percent will keep heat index values in check.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Southeast winds
around 12kts at taf issuance will veer to the south then west then
north for the remainder of the period with speeds up to 13kts with
perhaps some higher gusts at times...primarily during the day
Thursday. Showers/thunderstorms northwest of the terminal at
present time are showing a southeast movement near 30 mph and
could impact the terminal around 01z. Have added a thunder mention
for the 01z-02z timeframe.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Gusty east winds
at taf issuance will subside by 02z and remain from an east to
northeast direction at speeds under 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...EV
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-152115-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
304 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019 /404 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Tri-State area starting
3 PM MDT through 3 AM MDT tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northeast Colorado and
adjacent counties through 9 PM MDT tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening,
primarily north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83 between
3 pm and 10 pm MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds will be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on both Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NEZ081-142315-
Red Willow NE-
539 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 23 miles southeast
of Curtis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bartley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 10019 4001 10019 4035 10039 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 324DEG 28KT 4038 10023

PATTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

COZ090-142345-
Yuma County CO-
512 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 511 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Wray, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wray and Vernon.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 225 and 247.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 4003 10256 4021 10233 4000 10206 3977 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 314DEG 18KT 4007 10234

PATTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT WED AUG 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             5 WNW WRAY              40.11N 102.32W
08/14/2019  M1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&