Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
433 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Dewpoint coverage has been abnormal for the region with higher
dewpoints over our western coverage area and higher elevation areas.
Lower dewpoints have been observed in our lower areas to the
east. The drier air in these areas will help to reduce the threat
of any severe potential the further east you go in the CWA.

Visible satellite shows convective cumulus over northeastern Colorado and
extreme northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska this
afternoon. A few isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
this afternoon into this evening with the best chance for any
severe storms being in northeastern Colorado. Current MLCAPE
values range from 1500-2000 J/kg in the region with lower values
and CIN just to the east, across the border into Kansas and
Nebraska. DCAPE values range from 1400-1500 J/kg and EBWD values
are around 40+ kts. Any storms that do fire off in northeastern
Colorado will have the potential for large hail, and some strong
wind gusts, in addition to localized heavy rainfall. The extent of
the severe coverage will remain in northeastern Colorado.

Going into the overnight hours, any remaining storms will push
mainly to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge will prevail over the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains through the upcoming
weekend.

Tue-Wed: With a pronounced ridge in close proximity to the Tri-
State area, expect predominately dry conditions and above normal
temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s.
Although isolated diurnal convection cannot be ruled out in
eastern Colorado during the late afternoon and evening hours on
either day -- activity may largely be confined to the Colorado
Front Range (along/west of I-25).

Thu-Mon: Ridging aloft will persist over the central/southern
Rockies and High Plains through the remainder of the long term
period. With the mid-latitude westerlies generally confined to
higher latitudes (WY/NE/SD/ND), expect near-normal to above normal
temperatures and predominately dry conditions. Isolated diurnal
convection will be possible during the late afternoon and evening
hours each day in eastern Colorado, though the majority of
activity may be confined to the Colorado Front Range (along/west
of I-25). Small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of the
westerlies and/or mesoscale features emanating from upstream
convection may alter convective evolution on any given day,
however, such features cannot be resolved with much (if any)
confidence at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

KGLD, showers/thunderstorms possible from taf issuance through
about 01z as convection near Wray moves southeast toward the
terminal. Severe storms possible. After 01z or 02z vfr conditions
expected. South to southeast winds 10 to 15kts will increase after
sunrise Tuesday morning with gusts near 30kts expected through mid
afternoon before decreasing below 11kts after 20z.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected. An east wind near 10kts will
continue through 14z then veer to the southeast at 14g22kt or so
from 15z through the rest of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-302030-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
219 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019 /319 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter to golf
ball size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible late
this afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of Highway 27
between 2 pm and 9 pm MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
459 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             4 ESE STRATTON          39.29N 102.54W
07/29/2019  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE VONA              39.29N 102.71W
07/29/2019                   KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT CALLED AT 5:03PM MT AND
            REPORTED THAT TWO SEMIS WERE BLOWN OVER BY
            THE WIND. LSR TIME IS REFLECTING RADAR DATA
            TO SUPPORT THIS WIND DAMAGE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

COZ091-300015-
Kit Carson County CO-
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 29 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 554 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stratton, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stratton.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 414 and
426.

LAT...LON 3938 10271 3941 10253 3916 10242 3912 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 350DEG 16KT 3932 10264

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             STRATTON                39.30N 102.60W
07/29/2019  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

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