Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
113 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Overview: An upper level low situated invof Cheyenne/Fort Collins
at 17Z will track east into central Nebraska (this evening) and
eastern Nebraska (overnight).

Today-Tonight: Diurnal heating, marginally steep mid-level lapse
rates (6.5-7.5 C/km), and decreasing temperatures aloft (H5 temps
falling from -15 to -17/-18C) associated with the approaching
upper low will result in marginal destabilization this afternoon,
with mlcape values ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. With little/no
convective inhibition (per 17Z SPC mesoanalysis), DPVA attendant
the approaching upper low has already begun to force convection in
Colorado and western Nebraska. Convection will increase in
coverage over the Tri-State area this afternoon as the upper low
progresses from northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska.
Convection will wane/dissipate from west-east between 00-03Z in
association with (1) increasing subsidence on the western
periphery of the departing upper low and (2) loss of insolation.

Severe Potential: Marginal mlcape (500-1000 J/kg), marginal dcape
(500-1000 J/kg), marginally steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.5
C/km), and weak low-mid level (SFC-700 mb) flow suggest a
relatively low potential for severe wind. Although flow aloft
/deep-layer shear/ will weaken in close vicinity of the upper low
as it progresses toward south-central Nebraska this afternoon --
westerly flow aloft (500-300 mb) on the southern periphery of the
upper low will be sufficient to maintain 30-40 knots of deep-
layer shear over portions of northwest KS, primarily along/south
of I-70 -- where updrafts of sufficient depth may acquire
supercellular characteristics and pose a risk for marginally
severe hail.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Synopsis... Quieter and warmer weather is expected for the Tri-State
area for this coming week. Besides a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening, mostly dry conditions are expected
across the forecast area through at least the weekend. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may return in the afternoon and evening
hours Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be warm with highs
starting out in the 80s Monday and Tuesday and increasing to the mid
90s Wednesday through Sunday. Low temperatures will also similarly
increase from the 40s and 50s Monday morning to mostly 60s by the
latter half of this coming week. There will be the possibility of
some breezy wind gusts up to 20 to 25 kts especially in the
afternoon and evening hours throughout the forecast period.

Discussion... Broad upper-level ridging is expected to take hold
over the southern United States this coming week which will lead to
generally reduced precipitation chances and clearing skies across
the Tri-State area. With stagnant air and plenty of sunshine, much
warmer temperatures are expected with afternoon highs reaching into
the low to mid 90s for first time this year for much of the forecast
area. These temperatures will be below record-setting levels, but
they will still be fairly uncomfortable. People affected by warm
temperatures will want to take precautions to stay cool and hydrated
in the long term forecast period, especially in the afternoon hours.

The first good chance for precipitation in the Tri-State area in the
long term forecast period will come Wednesday evening when a
shortwave upper-level trough is expected to develop on the lee side
of the Rocky Mountains in response to westerly flow aloft. There
could be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening
as a result of this trough. However, these chances will be short
lived as the upper-level ridge continues to strengthen in the
southwest United States.

The next best chance for more showers and thunderstorms will be this
coming weekend when a strong upper-level longwave trough develops
over the western United States. However, forecast models disagree on
the timing and location this trough since it is still several days
out. Most forecast models still show strong upper-level ridging over
our forecast area which will work to keep that trough farther west
with less of an effect on the Central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

At GLD, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
between 18-01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the
TAF period. NNW-NW winds at 10 knots will back to the WNW and
increase to 15-20 knots this afternoon. Winds will veer slightly
from WNW to NW and decrease to ~10 knots after ~00Z, becoming
light/variable after sunset. Winds will become W-WNW at 15-25
knots near the end of the TAF period (~15Z Monday morning).

At MCK, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
between 20-02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the
TAF period. Expect NNW-NW winds at 10-15 knots today, becoming
light/variable after sunset. Winds will become WSW at 10-15 knots
late Monday morning (~15Z), veering to the W and increasing to
15-25 knots by the end of the TAF period (16-18Z Monday).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1247 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241900-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1247 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019 /147 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will track eastward across the Tri-State
area this afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm capable of
producing quarter size hail will be possible, primarily along and
south of Interstate 70 between 1 PM and 6 PM MDT. Thunderstorms are
expected to weaken and dissipate from west to east between 6 PM and 9
PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Goodland by calling 1-800-272-7811.

Vincent

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