Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

What appears to a number of different rounds of severe
thunderstorms has begun this afternoon. So time is short. Front
has moved into the northwestern portion of the forecast area.
Models have slowed down the progression of the cold front across
the area. This is due to a wave/surface low over southeast
Colorado. The front is expected to stall or move rather slowly
until later on this evening.

Discrete, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near or
slightly to the east of the front initially. Then additional
development is expected along and just behind the front by later
this afternoon. By mid to late evening all this activity is going
to merge together into a large cluster and move across the area
through the overnight hours. It is also possible that elevated
thunderstorms develop behind the front later in the night.

The high resolution/Cams are different but it is their attempt to
depict the above scenarios. So large hail and maybe a tornado or
two can be expected until the storms merge. Then the threat will
shift to more of a wind threat that could last through the night.
Through the overnight hours, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible as well.

There will be lingering precipitation during the day tomorrow but
hard to tell how much or how long it will be. Models consistent in
cooling off high temperatures into the 60s for Sunday. Clouds
clear out later tomorrow into the evening with the winds becoming
light. Did not have time to do a climate section. However the
current forecast lows for Sunday night from the upper 30s into
the lower 40s means low temperature records will be broken.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Not much time to write due to severe weather beginning.

Earlier system that was affecting the area Tuesday is not as
strong, and the pops have gone down.

Mean trough remains out west. The trough, rather complex with
numerous smaller waves to move through the area, will affect the
area from Thursday night into Saturday. So unsettled weather is
expected during that time.

Warmer temperatures, near to slightly below normal, are expected
from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

For KGLD and KMCK, thunderstorms will be possible at both
terminals through about 06z or 07z as a cold front moves toward
the area. Winds begin from the east or southeast 10-15kts backing
to the north and gusting around 30kts by 06z. Sub vfr cigs
expected from 06z-12z then vfr conditions return with winds slowly
decreasing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
252 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 /352 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the
overnight hours. Through the early evening hours, the main threats
will be large hail and isolated tornados. Damaging winds will also be
possible and these winds could cause blowing dust which could
significantly reduce the visibility.

After early evening, these storms will merge, and form a large
cluster that will move across the area through the overnight hours.
After this happens, damaging winds will become the main threat and
will be rather widespread. As before these winds could cause blowing
dust. Through the overnight hours, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible with any of these storms.

Even though the fire danger is not high, any fire that gets started
this afternoon and evening could become significant due to quickly
changing and increasing winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Flooding concerns will have to be monitored on Sunday as locally
heavy rainfall from the overnight period Saturday could have
lingering issues for portions of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected through the overnight hours.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

KSZ001-082345-
Cheyenne KS-
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 625 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of St. Francis, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3972 10197 3989 10205 3999 10182 3981 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 244DEG 27KT 3985 10194

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

KSZ002-003-014-015-082345-
Rawlins KS-Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-Thomas KS-
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN THOMAS...
NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN...SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS AND SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Rexford, or 18 miles southeast of Atwood, moving east
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3975 10059 3951 10054 3952 10088 3970 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 261DEG 16KT 3963 10079

Hill