Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
707 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Main concern is another round of thunderstorms tonight. Even
though the overall setup remains on the large scale, there are
subtle differences that have/will increase the coverage of storms
and the possibility of severe storms. Lift looks a little better
with a weak shortwave trough and a left front quadrant of upper
jet. This combined with the weak surface is providing weak but
broad lift. Due to negative theta-e lapse rates, there should
continue to be a good and rapid response to the lift.

This can be seen in more widespread coverage seen on the radar. A
watch has already been issued that covers our Colorado counties.
The one thing that is still lacking is low effective shear, less
than 30 knots. This can be seen in the storms already going from a
discrete supercells to merging in to large liner clusters. There
may be some hail but this is looking like damaging wind will be
the main threat. That is also helped by Dcape between 1000-1500.

Saying all that high resolution guidance is consistent in taking a
large cluster through the northern half to two thirds of the area.
With PWs 1 to 1.5 inches and somewhat slow movement, expect
locally heavy rainfall to be a threat as well. The brunt of the
precipitation will be this evening and end after midnight.

For Tuesday/Tuesday night...A little more uncertainty with models
having differences. Persistent closed upper low over the desert
southwest is starting to move to the northeast during this period
and the models differ in how they do that. It is uncertain how
much lift in advance of this system there will be. At this time
there looks to be low chance of the thunderstorms in the forecast
for late in the afternoon into tonight. However there is potential
for there to be more or even less coverage. No matter what there
looks to be a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

At the start of the extended, the models are showing an upper-level
closed low moving eastward from the Four Corners region towards and
across the Texas Panhandle through Friday. Over the weekend, ridging
will influence the local area on Saturday before a strong upper-
level trough moves into the northern High Plains from the Pacific
Northwest Sunday.

With this pattern, expect showers and thunderstorms over the local
area from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon due the
passing of the closed low to our south.

Friday, slight chance of showers still exist, especially over east-
central Colorado, as an upper-level troughs look to develop and move
off the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and across the central High
Plains.

Friday night through Saturday, expect dry conditions as the local
area will be under the influence of upper-level ridging.

Saturday night through the rest of the period, expect showers and
thunderstorms to return to the area during the evening Saturday and
through Sunday as the upper-level trough passes across the northern
High Plains. There are questions on how far the tail end of this
trough will reach. As of now it does not look to have a significant
impact and Monday looks to be dry; however, this could change if the
trough digs deeper south than what the models are showing. Something
we will keep an eye on.

Temperature will mostly be in the lower 80s with the exception of
Thursday (middle 70s) due to the passage of the closed low and
Sunday/Monday (lower 70) due to the front associated with the upper-
level trough moving across the northern High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Showers and storms are expected to impact the McCook and Goodland
terminals this evening. Sub-VFR conditions will hang around until
the showers and storms pass. Afterward VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...EV

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