Red Flag Warning 21, NWS Grand Junction, CO

763 
WWUS85 KGJT 080311
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
911 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR UTAH FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 490 AND 491 IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...

.Surface winds will increase Sunday afternoon as a strong low
pressure system moves across the region, followed by a dry
airmass. Combination of dry air and strong winds mixing to the
surface will result in critical fire weather conditions in
southeast Utah. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning was issued for
Sunday afternoon and evening until 9 PM MDT for wind, low
relative humidity and dry fuels.

UTZ490-491-081300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0021.190908T1800Z-190909T0300Z/
Colorado River Basin-Southeast Utah-
911 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River 
  Basin and Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...11 to 16 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition 
  and spread of fires. Open burning is strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

995 
WWUS85 KGJT 081004
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
404 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR
SOUTHEAST UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

.Surface winds increase this afternoon as a strong low pressure
system moves across the region, followed by a dry airmass. The 
combination of dry air and strong winds will result in critical 
fire weather conditions across southeast Utah. Therefore, a Red 
Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon and evening until 9 
PM MDT for strong gusty winds, low relative humidity and dry 
fuels.

UTZ490-491-081815-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0021.190908T1800Z-190909T0300Z/
Colorado River Basin-Southeast Utah-
404 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River 
  Basin and Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition 
  and spread of fires. Open burning is strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

563 
WWUS85 KGJT 081758
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1158 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

.Surface winds will increase this afternoon as a drier airmass as
moves into southeast Utah behind a strong low pressure system. 
The combination of lower humidity and strong winds will result in
critical fire weather conditions across southeast Utah. Therefore,
a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon and evening 
until 9 PM MDT.

UTZ490-491-090300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0021.190908T1800Z-190909T0300Z/
Colorado River Basin-Southeast Utah-
1158 AM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 490 AND 491...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River 
  Basin and Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition 
  and spread of fires. Open burning is strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

669 
WWUS85 KGJT 082102
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
302 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

.Surface winds increased this afternoon and the humidity began to
drop, though not a quickly as expected. Still, through 9 PM the 
humidity should steadily fall and combine with strong southwest 
winds to produce critical fire weather conditions over Utah fire 
zones 490 and 491. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning remains in 
effect until 9 PM MDT.

UTZ490-491-090300-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190909T0300Z/
Colorado River Basin-Southeast Utah-
302 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 490 AND 491...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 490 Colorado River 
  Basin and Fire Weather Zone 491 Southeast Utah.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...12 to 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition 
  and spread of fires. Open burning is strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

336 
WWUS85 KGJT 090256
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
856 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

UTZ490-491-090400-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190909T0300Z/
Colorado River Basin-Southeast Utah-
856 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491...

Winds have diminished across the warned area while humidities have
increased above 15%. The warning will be allowed to expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gjt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1105 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Convection still ongoing this morning with isolated to scattered
storms still forming in this moist, unstable environment due to a
shortwave disturbance passing through the flow. The focus for
storm activity will shift to areas south of I-70, particularly the
central and southern Colorado mountains, as well as southeast
Utah, as drier air works into northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado behind this shortwave trough. Precipitable water (PW)
values will be a little less than yesterday with 0.75 inches on
average for areas south of I-70 and PW of 0.5 inches north of
I-70. Expect morning convection to taper off around sunrise with a
few isolated storms here and there, particularly near the Four
Corners where better moisture remains. Clearing skies from the
northwest should allow for sufficient surface heating to get
storms to fire over the high terrain by afternoon. Low levels
still remain dry as seen from yesterday's sounding, so gusty
outflow winds and lightning will be the primary concerns with
convection today. Lack of significant forcing will allow
convection to die off after sunset today.

A stronger low pressure trough will approach from the west as it
tracks across the Great Basin Sunday morning. Clouds and
showers/storms will increase from the west across eastern Utah
Sunday morning before tracking across western Colorado late Sunday
morning into the afternoon. PW will increase with the passage of
this trough as values rise to between 0.75 inches and 1 inch along
the negatively tilted trough axis. Gusty outflow winds and
lightning will remain primary threats with better potential for
locally heavy rain given the increased moisture. Significantly
drier air will push in across southeast Utah on the backside of
this low pressure trough Sunday afternoon with the drier air
spreading across western Colorado by Sunday evening. This should
allow for the moisture to push out of the region fairly quickly.
The combination of the tightened pressure gradient resulting in
deeper mixing of strong winds to the surface and the dry air
across southeast Utah will help elevate critical fire weather
concerns. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch still remains in effect
for the southeast Utah Fire Weather Zones. See Fire Weather
section below for more details.

Temperatures will remain hot today with above normal readings
before taking a dip to near normal by Sunday due to increased
cloud cover and showers as well as cooler air following the trough
passage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

A dry westerly flow will take hold to begin the new work week with
a brief shortwave ridge of high pressure moving overhead. The
pattern turns more progressive looking ahead as another deep
trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. The flow
will shift to the southwest by Monday evening with a shortwave
ejecting out ahead of this low on Tuesday, generating some
isolated to scattered showers/storms Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon. As this PacNW trough moves across the northern
Rockies on Wednesday, we will see a dip in the polar jet to allow
for some showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly
across the northern and central portions of eastern Utah and
western Colorado. A flat ridge of high pressure with primarily
westerly flow then returns Thursday to end the week. Temperatures
for next week will remain near normal for a change with a dip
occurring with the Wednesday-Thursday trough passage across the
north, allowing temps to lower a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Low clouds in the Upper Colorado river valley will continue
thinning and dissipate by 19z causing MVFR CIGS at KEGE to
dissipate as well. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon over the central and southern CO
mountains then diminish around sunset. KTEX will see VCTS. Expect
gusty winds and lightning with locally obscured mountain tops
through about 03z. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

A strong gradient associated with a passing trough on Sunday will
lead to strong and gusty surface winds across much of the
forecast area. The limiting factor will be afternoon relative
humidity as the moisture associated with the trough raises minimum
values above critical criteria across all but southeastern Utah.
Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Utah Fire
Weather Zones 490 and 491 on Sunday. Dry and cooler weather will
arrive to start the following week with occasional breezy
conditions due to a more relaxed gradient.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for UTZ490-491.

&&

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
151 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-082000-
Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin-
Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains-
Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor-
Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas-
Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys-
Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin-
West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-
Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains-
Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
151 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated storms this morning will dissipate shortly after sunrise
with scattered storms redeveloping this afternoon and evening
focused over the high terrain. Gusty outflow winds and lightning
are the main concerns with storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong low pressure system will move through Sunday, bringing
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of
the area late Sunday morning into the late afternoon. Much drier
air will quickly move in from the southwest behind this system,
bringing the areas of critical fire weather conditions over
southeast Utah due to wind and low relative humidity.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly over higher terrain
will persist during the coming week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.