Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The cold front is a just a bit farther northwest than previously
expected. Therefore the severe thunderstorm watch runs from Rooks
County Kansas up through Filmore county in Nebraska. Still expect
hail and wind gusts to be the main threats through around
midnight.

Also, I significantly increased PoPs after midnight as the HRRR
shows fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms over most of the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Our biggest weather concerns are in the short term period with a
brief window for possibly a few severe thunderstorms prior to the
cold front exiting our area to the south. At 315 PM CDT the cold
front was located along a line from around Hebron, to Mankato, to
Osborne and tracking southeast. Thunderstorms will likely form
along this front between 530 and 800 PM when the front should be
located near Beloit by that point in time. Deep layer wind shear
values around 40 kts with sfc based CAPE values of over 3000 J/KG
will support severe thunderstorm development along the cold front,
which will act as a forcing mechanism. However, these storms
along the cold front will quickly exit our forecast area to the
southeast.

Late evening and tonight.
Additional elevated thunderstorms will develop north of the cold
front late this evening generally after 9 or 10 pm and greatly
expand northward after midnight. However, these later
thunderstorms north of the boundary will have less instability to
work with and should generally not be severe although there could
be a few strong thunderstorms just north of the front over
northern Kansas for at time this evening. Again the main threat
for severe thunderstorms will those thunderstorms that form right
along the cold front boundary this evening. The general
thunderstorms that will expand north through the area late tonight
will likely be the most numerous along and south of I-80.

Sunday...
Thunderstorms will likely linger into Sunday morning, possibly
through mid to late morning across eastern zones. However, the
afternoon should be dry across the area with the storm system
departing our area. It will be a much cooler day behind the cool
front with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

We expect an upper low to cut off and hang out over the desert
southwest for few days before ejecting into the plains by late
week (Friday) with poor confidence on how this upper low will
track into the central plains. Overall rain chances this week are
currently low at best. We do expect a significant trough to
develop over the western United States by next weekend, but that
trough could get hung up over the west due to a strong ridge
across the southeastern portion of the country. Consequently,
confidence in precipitation chances as we head into next weekend
is also rather low. Overall temperatures should range from the 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The cold front is well south of the terminals, but scattered
thunderstorms are still expected to move into the terminal
vicinity in the 06-15Z timeframe. These storms should be non-
severe at this point.

Winds will remain north to northwesterly through the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221730-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will increase across southern portions of
the outlook area this evening. The best chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms will be after 5 PM, mainly along and south of
a line from Hebron, Nebraska to Mankato and Stockton, Kansas.
The primary hazards will be large hail to the size of golf balls,
damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH and heavy rainfall.

Late tonight, mainly after midnight, thunderstorm chances will
spread further north across the remainder of the outlook area
including south central Nebraska, but the best chances will be
focused along and south of Interstate 80. The overall threat for
severe weather is expected to wane through the late evening hours
with most if not all of the storms expected to be below severe
weather thresholds by midnight as the storms expand northward into
south central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Non severe thunderstorms may linger across much of the outlook
area Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorm chances return to
the forecast Monday night into Tuesday, and again Thursday night
into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 PM this evening, mainly
south of a line from Hebron Nebraska to Stockton Kansas.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
651 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

NEZ087-220030-
Thayer NE-
651 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAYER COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 650 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chester, or 17 miles north of Belleville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hebron, Deshler, Chester, Alexandria, Byron, Hubbell, Belvidere and
Gilead.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4000 9737 4000 9782 4004 9782 4035 9749
      4035 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 223DEG 33KT 4008 9763

Mangels

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ006-007-018-019-220030-
Jewell KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
659 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHWESTERN JEWELL...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Downs, or 22 miles west of Beloit, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Downs, Cawker City and Ionia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3938 9852 3952 9871 3974 9846 3958 9819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 222DEG 26KT 3954 9853

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
704 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ017-018-220030-
Rooks KS-Osborne KS-
704 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROOKS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Natoma, or 16 miles north of Emmeram, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Natoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3914 9914 3934 9903 3927 9877 3913 9888
      3913 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 222DEG 24KT 3918 9902

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
717 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             1 ESE HEBRON            40.17N 97.58W
09/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       THAYER             NE   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

MANGELS