Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Skies have cleared for much of the area with just a few cirrus and
mid level clouds around the area. The surface low and cold front
have started to move into the area, but at this time, the front is
just into the northwest part of the area.

Expect that the front will continue to move into the area this
afternoon and tonight. By this evening, the front should be in the
central part of the forecast area, and it should be mainly through
the area during the overnight hours. There is pretty good agreement
in the short term models that there will be some development along
or behind the front mainly during the evening hours. The best chance
for development is probably between 6 and 8 pm this evening. That
coincides with some of the best MUCAPE, around 3000 j/kg, and the
least CIN. There could be a few strong to severe storms, but expect
that hail with be the biggest threat.

Later tonight, the CAPE falls off after sunset and as the front
moves out, the upper level wave will keep a few showers and
thunderstorms, but expect them to be further to the north near the
upper level wave. Thunderstorms should diminish and leave just
showers toward morning. Still have showers in the north through the
day on Monday, but not sure how much there will be.

After the front moves through, there will be increasing low clouds
and north winds will increase and become breezy. The low clouds are
expected to continue into the day on Monday. The clouds and cold
advection will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A surface high will move into the area Monday night and and Tuesday.
This will slowly clear the clouds out and allow for some sunshine.
Expect Tuesday to be a little warmer than Monday. Wednesday and
Thursday should continue to be dry. There will be a little warm
advection and with some sunshine, expect there to be warmer
temperatures again.

The next upper level wave will affect the area Thursday night
through Friday night. There could be a few showers and even some
thunderstorms Friday night. On Saturday the cold front finally moves
through the area and temperatures warm up a little more just ahead
of the front. Then Saturday night into Sunday there will be some
small chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night
with showers possible Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

An upper level trough will bring a chance for some VCSH and maybe
a few VCTS to the TAF sites this evening. Guidance shows GRI to
have the better chances for VCTS, so left out for EAR at this
time. Ceilings will lower behind the cold front moving across the
region this evening with MVFR forecast after midnight. Low clouds
look to linger until midday and will begin to lift in the
afternoon and should scatter out in the evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221215-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
331 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight. A
few severe storms are possible with hail to the size of quarters
and isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday night and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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