Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are starting to increase in coverage
early this morning as a weak wave moving off the high plains
approaches the local area. Increased pops for much of the area
this morning in response to this approaching system...especially
across western portions of the area early this morning, and
primarily north of I-80 during the mid to late morning hours.
Latest model data is hinting a bit more shear than was forecast
yesterday, so despite the weak instability, would not be surprised
to see a few strong storms as we go through the morning hours,
although severe hail/wind appears much less likely at this time.

Later today, instability will wane by early afternoon as a weak
cold front traverses the local area, ending thunderstorm chances
and bringing very breezy northwesterly winds. Correspondingly
increased winds this afternoon...with gusts of 35 to 40 mph
expected behind the aforementioned front making for a blustery and
cooler afternoon across the local area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

The upper level low across the desert southwest will track east
across the southern plains to start the extended periods...with
generally dry and seasonable conditions existing into the first
half of the upcoming weekend. There are two exceptions to
mention...however...as a weak wave in northwesterly flow behind
the departing system could generate some light shower activity
Thursday afternoon...although with meager instability...chose not
to even mention the possibility of thunder and do not think it
result in more than a couple of hundredths of an inch of rainfall
accumulation at best. The second item of interest are the low
temperatures behind this passing northerly wave...which could
reach frosty levels Friday morning. While the official forecast
keeps temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s Friday
morning, some guidance is suggesting it could be 3-7 degrees
cooler than we currently have going, and we will need to monitor
this for potential impacts on sensitive vegetation.

Otherwise...dry weather will persist through Saturday...with a
weak system coming out of the Rockies expected to bring the next
chance for precipitation to the region on Sunday. While there is
discrepancy among the global models on the placement and timing of
this system...still expect at least some showers around during the
day Sunday with the mention of any thunderstorms currently limited
to north central Kansas where the best instability lies.
Thereafter...continued off and on again chances for light precip
through the middle of next week...although this is largely a
result of timing issues among the models as it is likely that much
of the local area will see more dry weather than rain over this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are approaching the terminals
this morning and continue to expect at least a VCTS through the early
morning hours as a weak disturbance to our west crosses the local
area. At the same time, MVFR cigs will linger through the morning
hours and are expected to improve behind a cold front later this
morning. Behind the associated front, expect a shift from lighter
southerly winds to downright breezy northwesterly winds...along
with a gradual decrease in shower activity and cloud cover late in
the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
430 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
180930-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
430 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the entire forecast
area this morning, with a strong thunderstorm or two not out of
the question. These stronger storms could contain hail to the
size of nickels along with 50 MPH wind gusts. Later today,
additional small chances for thunderstorms exist primarily along
and southeast of a line extending from Hebron, Nebraska to Natoma,
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A small chance for thunderstorms returns to the forecast for
portions of north central Kansas Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
657 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

NEZ061-073-074-171230-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-
657 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PHELPS...NORTHWESTERN
KEARNEY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 656 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elm Creek to near Holdrege. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Odessa, Funk and Riverdale.

LAT...LON 4082 9911 4056 9895 4041 9933 4065 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 234DEG 27KT 4066 9939 4045 9932

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
736 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

NEZ074-075-084-085-171315-
Franklin NE-Adams NE-Webster NE-Kearney NE-
736 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN KEARNEY COUNTIES UNTIL
815 AM CDT...

At 736 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Upland, or 28 miles east of Holdrege, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Hill, Campbell, Bladen, Roseland, Holstein, Upland, Norman and
Rosemont.

LAT...LON 4014 9890 4042 9908 4062 9858 4026 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 242DEG 26KT 4030 9888

Billings Wright

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