Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

The main concern of this forecast is potential for severe tstms
this evening into the overnight.

A bit of a messy/complex forecast for the next 12hrs due to
uncertainties in how tstms track/evolve from two distinct forcing
regimes.

Have ongoing tstms in the far N as of 21Z, but this activity is
largely elevated and is not expected to be severe. The first area
of concern for potential severe is tstms developing along a cold
front in the Sandhills this aftn. This activity is forming in an
area of strong instability (ML CAPE up to 3000 J/kg) but
relatively weak effective shear around 30kt. Given the somewhat
lackluster shear and linear forcing along the front, think
activity will also be fairly linear by the time it makes it into
the CWA. The question then becomes when. The front orientation is
currently parallel to the H85-H3 mean wind, so do not a fast
eastward push to these storms anytime soon. The general
expectation is that eventually a strong enough cold pool will
develop that allows the more W to E 0-3km shear vectors to matter
and give the storms more of a push to the E. Latest CAMs suggest
this may not happen until 00-01Z in the far NW. With time,
however, this evening sfc based instability will begin to decr and
storms may take on more of an elevated nature which would limit
the dmg wind potential. So the slower arrival of the front may be
leading to somewhat decreased surface based severe weather
potential this evening, but this all depends on how activity
organizes over the next couple of hrs W of our area.

The second potential regime for tstm/severe potential is along the
SE moving elevated cold front and N of a strengthening H85 LLJ in
the 05Z to 09Z time frame. There is good model agreement is strong
deep layer moisture convergence tonight, focused along and S of
the H85 front as well as N of a 45kt LLJ focused over KS. This
supports a continuation of the initial evening convection on the S
flank, as well as activity that may move off the High Plains
through N KS. While CAPE will be on the decr, effective shear
magnitudes will incr and may offset the loss in instability. CAMs
have been fairly consistent in showing vigorous tstm development
well into the overnight for areas S of I-80 with mainly a large
hail threat, but possibly a damaging wind threat too. PWATs incr
to around 1.75" in this area so any cores will be fairly efficient
rainfall producers. Also, Corfidi Vectors, at times, become lgt
and vrbl suggesting some training/backbuilding is possible as
well. Given the abundant forcing/moisture think there will be
fairly widespread rain amounts near 1", but heavier bands of 2-3"
is not out of the question. This could result in localized flash
flooding. Ultimately, this will depend on where LLJ sets up, which
may be just S of the area. For this reason, along with relatively
dry/warm last few days, held off on a Flash Flood Watch.

The cold front will continue to sag S on Sun, but the area will
remain ahead of the mid-level trough axis through most of the
morning, and plenty of moisture and weak instability will linger
in the H85-H7 layer to provide potential for scat shwrs/weak
tstms. Most of the area should be dry Sun aftn. There is a decent
pressure gradient with this system and upstream obs suggest it
will become fairly breezy behind the front, so combined with temps
in 50s to low 60s it will feel quite chilly Sun AM for June
standards. Expect to see highs in the mid 60s, maybe upper 60s, if
clds clear out sooner.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Generally below normal temperatures with occasional pcpn chances
in the extended.

Not much time spent on the extended, but general trend will be
for below normal temperatures in the 70s for nearly all of the
upcoming week, with perhaps some rebound to near normal by next
Fri-Sat. Normal highs for this time of year are rising through the
low 80s. Humidity values will also be lower than typical for June,
which will make for very pleasant conditions. The exception to
the nice weather will be occasional chances for pcpn with a
reinforcing cold front on Tue and return flow late next week.
These systems don't look overly threatening at this time, and POPs
generally max out 30-50 percent with each system. Mon and Thu look
like the nicest days of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

As expected, a line of showers and thunderstorms have developed
west of the terminals this evening along a cold front and storms
will impact KEAR and KGRI in a few hours, reaching KEAR around
02Z Sunday and KGRI shortly thereafter. Storms to the west in LBF
have produced hail the size of half dollars. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary hazards from the storms and heavy
downpours of rain are also likely. Look for a wind shift to the
north behind the cold front with an increase in wind speeds and
gusts near 30kts. Cloud cigs should lower to MVFR in convection
with cigs improving once storms depart overnight/Sunday morning.
Wind speeds will remain gusty Sunday morning before gradually
subsiding in the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thies
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
346 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a potent cold front
in the Sandhills this afternoon and move across the forecast area
this evening into the overnight hours, some of which may be strong
to severe. The main time frame for severe weather will be after
6pm this evening through 3am tonight. The primary severe threats
are hail up to golf ball size, and damaging wind gusts near 60mph.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 10pm for areas
west of a Greeley to Kearney to Alma line. Additional watches are
possible overnight.

In addition to the severe threat, thunderstorms moving over the
same locations repeatedly overnight may lead to areas of heavy
rain and localized flooding, mainly near and south of Highway 6.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and non severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday,
mainly during the morning.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Monday
night into Tuesday night as another front moves across the area.
Thunderstorms return again Thursday night into Friday night. It is
too early to determine if these storms will be strong or severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and overnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

NEZ061-072-073-082>084-090145-
Franklin NE-Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Harlan NE-Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
802 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PHELPS...GOSPER...NORTHERN FURNAS
AND NORTHERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Bertrand to near Elwood to
6 miles east of Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Holdrege, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Bertrand, Elwood, Loomis,
Holbrook, Funk, Edison, Atlanta, Smithfield, Huntley, Ragan and
Johnson Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 10020 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998
      4069 9998 4067 9943 4068 9941 4068 9920
      4035 9918 4035 9917 4033 9916 4020 9915
      4018 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 272DEG 23KT 4042 9975 4051 9990 4042 10014

Rossi

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