Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Hastings, NE

664 
WGUS73 KGID 211328
FFSGID

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
828 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

NEC079-211337-
/O.CAN.KGID.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-190821T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hall NE-
828 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL HALL COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

Periodic thunderstorms with heavy rain may continue affect portions 
of the area this morning, but flash flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Elevated water levels of area creeks and waterways 
will continue through the day, so this Flash Flood Warning has been 
replaced with a broader, longer duration Flood Warning, which is in 
effect until 815 PM this evening.

LAT...LON 4080 9870 4089 9872 4098 9850 4096 9828
      4070 9828

$$

ADP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Thunderstorms have quickly fired up across the area over the last
half hour, which is a few hours ahead of the most recent high-res
model runs. Increased pops for the near-term and QPF based on
recent development location and guidance. The main concern is that
this activity is is developing in an area that has had 200-400%
of normal for precipitation over the past 30 days...so flooding
with any of these storms, especially if they train over the same
area is a concern. The evolution remains to be seen with the
activity in the NE Panhandle and continued overnight
development...still think for the next few hours...the Nebraska
counties, especially north of I-80 have the best chance for
rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Upper air and satellite data show westerly flow continues across
the area today, as high pressure remains centered over the south
central CONUS. The sfc pattern wasn't clear cut to start the day,
thanks to an overall weak pattern along with outflow from storms
in the region...but currently the main boundary lies across far
southern portions of the CWA. To the north winds have been east-
northeasterly (gusting to near 20 MPH occasionally)...to the south
winds have been south-southwesterly. Overall, things have been
dry across the CWA today, though earlier this afternoon a few
isolated showers/weak storms developed along that sfc/lower-level
boundary near the NE/KS state line...but didn't amount to much. As
expected, dewpoints have made things unpleasant, with most
locations in the mid 70s. Across north-central KS, where winds
were/are more SWrly, dewpoints have mixed down into the 60s. No
big surprises with temperatures, mid 80s to mid/upper 90s. The
worst heat index values have been over eastern NE/into
east/southern KS...but we have had readings in the 100-105 deg
range as well. Expect little change in that through the rest of
the afternoon.

Increasing chances for storms remains the primary forecast concern
through the short term period. Looking at this evening/tonight,
main notable change compared to 24 hrs ago is that models have
slowed down the onset of the 'heavier/more widespread' activity.
Short term models actually show very little going on this evening,
the exception mainly being some scattered activity perhaps
affecting the far SSWrn portions of the CWA (most keep it just
outside our border). But do have small chances in CWA-wide, can't
completely rule any area totally out (some hint at isolated
activity in the north). It's not until after midnight that chances
ramp up more. First, increasing lift along the nose of a srly LLJ
nosing in to the area may spark off an area of
thunderstorms...most models showing this being near/south of I-80
and near/east of HWY 281...though activity popping up outside of
that area certainly is possible as well. It's not looking to be
until after 09Z before the main upper level disturbance starts
moving into the area...with models showing it being after sunrise
before the main area of precip slides into the Tri-cities area.
The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk continues include all of our NE counties
and a good chunk of our KS counties. While deeper layer shear
isn't the greatest early on, models are in good agreement showing
plenty of instability present. Hail/wind transitioning to more of
a wind threat is expected...but heavy rain will be a concern
throughout. Plenty of moisture present will allow for efficient
rain-makers...and any training could cause flooding concerns.

As we get into the daytime hours tomorrow, confidence is lower
with how things will evolve. There is quite a bit of difference
between models with just how long/how widespread activity lingers
into the day. Forecast is on the generous side with higher PoPs,
but come midday it's not out of the question there is less going
on than currently in there...especially in the northern half or so
of the CWA. If there is any kind of break tomorrow afternoon,
depending on where the main sfc boundary is...redevelopment of
stronger storms late day/evening isn't out of the
question...mainly across the south. That uncertainty with
precipitation carries on into Wed night/Thursday...as models then
show another upper level disturbance moving in from the
west...which looks to mainly affect the southern half of the CWA.
Thursday night models finally 'dry things out', moving this
disturbance off to the east. Severe threat is expected to have
waned by the time we get into Thursday/Thurs night.

Another question mark in the forecast lies with high temperatures
tomorrow. Lowered highs a solid 3-5 degrees, with some
guidance/models suggesting that wasn't near enough. How precip
evolves tomorrow is going to play a big part, it if does truly
last most of the day over most of the area, yes the current
forecast is too warm (some guidance-mainly GFS driven-has
locations not making it out of the 60s). Trended things down into
the lower/mid 70s north to lower/mid 80s in KS. Tomorrow night,
not as much activity/breaks in the clouds could result in lower
overnight lows than currently forecast (which are in the upper
50s-lower 60s). Plenty of uncertainties. Thursday highs look to be
in the mid 70s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

With plenty going on in the shorter term side of things,
significant time was not spent on Friday into early next work
week. In the big picture, there hasn't been any notable
changes....we're still looking at a lower-confidence/periodic
precip chance type of pattern across the region. Flow remains
generally zonal, with occasional shortwave disturbances moving
through...but nailing down specifics with timing/location is
difficult. Temperature-wise, forecast has Fri/Mon/Tue in the mid
70s-lower 80s, with the weekend warmer, further into the 80s/lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Thunderstorms have begun along the I-80 corridor in Nebraska which
impacts both terminals. This is slightly ahead of the the earlier
forecast and have -TSRA from the onset at KGRI. KEAR may be on the
fringe for a period of time before it too should have some impacts
from thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected by morning
with continued chances for thunderstorms throughout the day. Winds
will remain east to northeast through the forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
220515-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1209 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast across the outlook
area through the overnight hours, especially for areas along and
north of Interstate 80 with decreasing thunderstorm chances as you
head south into northern Kansas. There will be the potential for
some storms to be strong to severe. The primary hazards will be
hail up to the size of golf balls, wind gusts near 60 MPH and
torrential rainfall which could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There are periodic thunderstorm chances each day Wednesday
through Monday. At this time, the best chances for more
widespread activity looks to be Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

NEZ062-210600-
Hall NE-
1211 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL COUNTY UNTIL 100 AM
CDT...

At 1211 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alda, or 10 miles southwest of Grand Island, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Island, Wood River, Doniphan and Alda.

LAT...LON 4078 9866 4089 9864 4089 9828 4070 9828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 270DEG 9KT 4080 9849

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
105 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

NEZ060-210645-
Dawson NE-
105 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

At 105 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Gothenburg, or 28 miles northwest of Lexington, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Dawson
County.

LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9979 4103 9978 4095 10016
      4100 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 242DEG 10KT 4106 10013

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
147 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE RAVENNA            40.99N 98.87W
08/21/2019  M55 MPH          BUFFALO            NE   MESONET

&&

JMBW