Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
105 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

We cont to monitor a serious situation over NW Valley county where
MRMS is estimating 2-4" of rain in the past 2 hrs. That is
probably underdone as this is low-echo-centroid convection...with
the highest reflectivity below the frzg lvl. Rainfall rates can
be extremely efficient in this situation. LBF relayed a report of
3" in 1 hr at Burwell. Lightning has been minimal.

A FFW (Flash Flood Wrng) was issued at 1128 AM and remains in
effect until 530 PM. Mdt rain conts to fall. The heaviest core
have slipped S of the wrng where less rain has fallen.

With all this rain in the N Loup Rvr basin...we will be watching
for water lvls to rise as this water collects into the river and
heads downstream.

UPDATE Issued at 841 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Have published a fcst update to remove thunder thru early aftn.
Can't completely rule out an isolated lightning strike here and
there...but the rain on radar is mostly low-topped. 12Z soundings
from LBF and OAX show minimal instability. PW at LBF was 1.70"
with 1.61" at OAX. That is near a record for the date at LBF and
at the 90% percentile at OAX.

A wk shrtwv trof extended from SD-NEB-KS and was sliding SE. This
will keep the chance for shwrs (some hvy) going thru the day. As
breaks dvlp in the OVC this aftn...that should result in enough
instability for a couple tstms to form.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Upper air and satellite data showing continued generally westerly
flow in place across the region early this morning. High pressure
aloft remains centered mainly over NM...sitting between a low
pressure system over the Pac NW/Canada and troughing extending
from the Hudson Bay area southward to the Gulf Coast region. At
the surface, easterly winds are in place across the CWA, with a
frontal boundary extending across southern portions of KS. As
expected, a swath of showers and thunderstorms developed a few
hours ago...started out mainly affecting our KS counties, but has
transitioned to more of a NNW-SSE orientated swath recently.
Driven by good lower/mid level warm air advection along the nose
of an increased LLJ...expecting activity to continue on through
the early morning hours. Only change made to the Flash Flood Watch
was to add Webster-Jewell-Mitchell Counties...portions of
Jewell/Mitchell have already picked up a couple inches, and with
the potential for that activity to slowly move out/more to develop
and move in, felt they should be added to the watch. Otherwise,
skies are overcast, with the majority of sites having developed
ceilings of MVFR (3k ft or lower) or worse (a trend that should
continue this morning). The clouds/precip have kept temps up, 3 am
obs sit in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The forecast for today through at least Saturday morning continues
to be full of PoPs, but overall confidence is not high. Aloft,
models show the generally westerly flow currently in place turning
more northwesterly with time today/tonight as the ridging builds
back north through the Rockies. While there aren't any notable
disturbances expected to move through the area, there is enough
subtle lift present between any other weak waves/lingering WAA
that models keep the potential for at least scattered
thunderstorms around the area into Sat morning (some models
suggest even later into Sat). Hard to make any big changes to
PoPs, which may be overdone timing and area-wise, but models are
kinda all over with exactly how activity evolves through the day.
The precip/clouds also makes for a lower confidence in
temperatures, current forecast calls for lower-mid 70s across most
of our NE counties, mid 70s-mid 80s across north-central KS.
Winds are expected to remain easterly through the day, topping out
around 10-15 MPH.

Late tonight and into Saturday morning, there continues to be the
potential for some fog development...thanks to recent rainfall and
continued easterly winds...and kept the mention going CWA-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

With ongoing activity, didn't spend a lot of time on the mid/longer
term periods.

Looking at Sunday and Monday, the current forecast remains a dry
one. Models are in good agreement showing upper level ridging
continuing to be the main feature, but with it still centered over
the desert SW and ridging mainly over the Rockies...that keeps our
CWA on the edge and potentially in the path of any disturbances
that ride around the ridging. So while the forecast Sun/Mon is
dry, confidence in it staying that way isn't the highest. Periodic
thunderstorm chances return to the area Monday night and continue
on through the work week.

As far as temperatures go, no big swings either way, highs mainly in
the 80s...some 90s here-and-there in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Significant Wx: IFR fog likely around sunrise Sat.

This afternoon: Vrbl multi-layered low clds with periods of MVFR
and VFR. Sct shwrs with hvy downpours psbl. SE winds 5-10 kt.
Confidence: High

Tonight: Probably VFR thru the evening...then becoming IFR as low
stratus and fog develop in the predawn hrs. 1/4SM FG VV002 is
psbl but did not indicate that low in the TAFs just yet. SE winds
under 10 kt becoming vrbl. Confidence: Medium

Sat until 18Z: IFR to start in fog and low stratus. 1/4SM FG VV002
is psbl...but conds will improve as VSBYs become unrestricted and
CIGs rise to MVFR. Lgt/vrbl but mainly SE winds under 10 kt.
Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Kelley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
848 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031400-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
848 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers will continue to produce heavy downpours until
sunset. An isolated thunderstorm or two could develop mainly this
afternoon and evening. The main threat will be locally heavy
rainfall...but small hail and gusty winds cannot be completely
ruled out with any thunderstorms that might develop.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the outlook
area through noon. Flood warnings are also in effect for parts of
the area. Please refer the latest watch and warning statements
for detailed information.

After midnight...there will be the potential for the development
of fog across the outlook area. Visibility may be reduced to one
half mile or less at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday morning, there will be the potential for the development
of fog across the outlook area. Visibility may be reduced to one
half mile or less at times.

Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast across the outlook
area into Saturday morning, then return on a periodic basis
Monday night through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight, but please
relay any reports of flooding and rain gauge measurements of 3
inches or more via our website or social media.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

ADP/Kelley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GRAFTON           40.59N 97.69W
08/02/2019  M2.21 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   COCORAHS

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ORLEANS                 40.13N 99.45W
08/02/2019  M2.42 INCH       HARLAN             NE   COCORAHS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM
            ORLEANS FROM ESTIMATED TO MEASURED.

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE YORK              40.87N 97.58W
08/02/2019  M2.21 INCH       YORK               NE   COCORAHS

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW GILTNER            40.79N 98.17W
08/02/2019  M1.94 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   COCORAHS

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW JEWELL            39.68N 98.21W
08/02/2019  M2.36 INCH       JEWELL             KS   MESONET

            24-HOUR RAINFALL.

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW BELOIT            39.46N 98.11W
08/02/2019  M2.10 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BELK1 BELOIT.

&&