Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The lower clouds across the area have nearly cleared out. There are
still some cumulus that have formed in the southwest, but mostly
sunny skies are common across much of the area. Temperatures have
quickly made a recovery. Highs still could be a tad lower than
forecast. Have taken a couple of degrees off the high this
afternoon.

There is still at least a little uncertainty for the forecast
tonight. Some models have convection further to the north, others
further south, some earlier and some later. Have settled on keeping
the forecast dry into the evening and most fireworks shows should go
on without trouble. The western part of the area will be the area
with the thunderstorms the closest. The thunderstorms should then
move through the area with the best chances for thunderstorms in the
Nebraska portion of the area tonight.

The problem is then what happens on Friday. Most of the
thunderstorms should move out of the area Friday morning, but the
timing is a little bit of a challenge. Then, there is an upper level
wave that moves into the area Friday afternoon which will cause a
redevelopment of thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

The thunderstorms Friday afternoon are expected to continue into
Friday night. The upper level wave will continue to move through the
area and there is a fairly weak front across the area. The
thunderstorms should be mainly to the north of the front. The best
chance should be during the evening and mostly over the Nebraska
portion of the area.

The period Saturday through Thursday will have an upper level ridge
building across the area and to the west. The weekend into early
next week the ridge is fairly weak and there will be several upper
level waves that move across the ridge. There will be on and off
chances for thunderstorms. With some clouds around, the temperatures
will be a little cooler than normal. Toward mid week, the ridge
builds some. The upper level waves moving across the ridge are
weaker and the chances for thunderstorms become more irregular and
lower chances. At the same time, the temperatures start to warm back
up a little, more toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

There is relatively high confidence that a line of thunderstorms
will move through central Nebraska late tonight...mainly after
06Z. That said, timing remains a bit tough to pin down...therefore
just continued with VCTS mention for now.

After thunderstorms move out of the area tomorrow morning, we
should have have a dry period before additional storms potentially
redevelop in the late afternoon and evening. The most likely
timeframe is just outside of this TAF period.

 &

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1013 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
051200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1013 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to move across
the area tonight. Some storms will likely be severe with wind
gusts around 70 mph, hail to the size of half dollars, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Storms will linger into early Friday morning before exiting the
area to the east. Scattered storms may then redevelop Friday
afternoon and evening. Again, some of these could be strong to
severe with large hail, gusty wind, and locally heavy rain.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day
through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Please relay reports of
hail or wind damage to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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