Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
310 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Not too difficult to pick out the feature of interest in the
satellite imagery early this morning. A tightly wound, stacked
upper level low pressure system continues to slide ENE across
the Central Plains...and is currently spinning over the far
eastern portions of our CWA...on its way into east-central NE by
around sunrise. Am impressed with how consistent the models were
over the past several days in the grand scheme of things with this
system, and did pretty well with the location of this smaller
band that is currently set up through central portions of NE. At
the sfc, the accompanying cold front has made the swing through
all but a very small corner of the SErn CWA. To this point, the
strongest winds have been just outside the western edge of the
CWA, but still have had a number of 55-60 MPH gusts (Ord has been
the highest so far, just gusted to 62 MPH at 243 AM). Looks like
the sfc low was around 977mb or so when it entered the SWrn corner
earlier this evening. Have had reports of reduced visibility and
hazardous travel conditions, and a handful of automated sites have
dropped down to 1/4-1/2 mi...feel headlines are in good shape as
is. Hydrology-wise, have many reports of flooded rivers,
water-covered roadways, etc...there were even a few water-rescues
in Buffalo County.

The forecast for today/tonight will continue to be dominated by
the gradually departing storm system. The worst conditions are
expected to continue through roughly the late morning hours, hi-
res models showing a marked downward trend in precip with time
from west to east. At this point, won't be making any changes to
current headlines...with the Blizzard Warning running through 18Z
and the Winter Weather Advisory for far eastern counties (that may
see at least light snow longer into the day) into this evening.
That Winter Weather Advisory may be running a bit long, but will
let day shift assess trends and adjust as necessary. No change in
the expectations for winds, those stronger gusts just off to the
west are expected to slide into our CWA. Through 18Z, the Blizzard
Warning covers the high wind, with a High Wind Warning in effect
for the remainder of the CWA. Once the Blizzard Warning expires,
the High Wind Warning will return for that area...running through
10 PM this evening.

Thinking is that precipitation will come to an end by this
evening, and kept the 00-12Z period tonight dry. Expecting to
see decreasing cloud cover with time through tonight, and though
winds won't be as strong as what is ongoing currently, they will
still be on the gusty side. Following highs today in the mid 30s-
near 40 (admittedly, confidence in that is on the low side),
overnight lows tonight drop into the lower-mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

With ongoing weather, did not spend a lot of time concentrating on
the long term period.

In the wake of this departing system, models are in good agreement
showing northwesterly flow setting up across the region as we get
into Friday and the upcoming weekend. The forecast for this period
is a dry one, and certainly looks to have more in the way in the
sunshine. NW winds may still be on the breezy side through the
morning hours on Friday, but the overall trend will continue
downward. Speeds closer to 10 MPH are expected for Sat/Sun. Also
have a warming trend in temps in the forecast, with highs in the
upper 30s/mid 40s Friday and up into the upper 40s to mid 50s by
Sunday.

Looking ahead to Monday through Wednesday, outside of a small
chance for precip thanks to a passing shortwave disturbance on
Tuesday, the forecast remains a dry one. 40s and 50s look to stick
around for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Powerful storm system will continue to drive the weather at both
terminal sites. Sub-1000ft ceilings and lower visibilities will
continue...with rain finally starting to give way to the snow.
Gusts upstream of the terminals have reached near 60MPH, expect
the same as that front pushes further east. It doesn't look to be
until later this afternoon when snow ends and winds show a
noticeable downward trend, though they will still be plenty
gusty.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085.

     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ039>041-
     046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-064-
     077-086-087.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-
     064-077-086-087.

KS...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005-006.

     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ005-006.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-
     017>019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1025 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
141200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1025 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A powerful storm system will continue to promote multiple weather
concerns.

South central Nebraska is in Flood warning or Flash Flood
Warnings. Please see the latest flood products for information.

Rain will continue to switch over to snow tonight. Combined with
northwest winds gusting to around 65 MPH, significant impacts are
expected.No matter how much snow falls, significant visibility
reductions are likely, as the entire outlook area will observe
intense northwest winds, gusting to around 65 MPH. As a result of
these snow and high wind concerns, the entire outlook area is
under a combination of Blizzard Warnings, Winter Weather
Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Please refer to these
statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday into Thursday evening, the entire outlook area remains
under a combination of Blizzard Warnings, Winter Weather
Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Please refer to these
statements for more information.

Flooding of various rivers, streams and low-lying areas will
continue for the next few days, until water levels subside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but any
reports of flooding or snow totals would be appreciated over the
next few days.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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