Tornado Warning 15, NWS Fort Worth, TX

911 
WWUS54 KFWD 131750
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

TXC001-161-289-131815-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190413T1815Z/
Freestone TX-Leon TX-Anderson TX-
1250 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FREESTONE...NORTHEASTERN LEON AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES...
    
At 1250 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles southwest of Palestine, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Elkhart and Oakwood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now!  Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3148 9573 3147 9576 3165 9600 3190 9585
      3157 9549 3156 9551 3154 9565 3152 9566
      3151 9574 3149 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 217DEG 38KT 3165 9583 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Hernandez

046 
WWUS54 KFWD 131801
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
101 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

TXC001-161-289-131811-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190413T1815Z/
Freestone TX-Leon TX-Anderson TX-
101 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FREESTONE...NORTHEASTERN LEON
AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled. However small hail is still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3148 9573 3147 9576 3165 9600 3190 9585
      3157 9549 3156 9551 3154 9565 3152 9566
      3151 9574 3149 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 221DEG 36KT 3173 9574 

$$

Hernandez

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
714 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.AVIATION...
/12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Periodic TS and ceiling trends. Non-thunderstorm winds.

Summary: Very poor flying conditions are likely today at all
North/Central Texas terminals.

Confidence in TS/ceiling forecast: Medium to High.

Confidence in Non-TS winds: Medium.

The first wave of TSRA will continue to lift northward from
Metroplex TAFs, but impacts to northbound departures and the
Bonham and Bowie cornerposts will continue. SHRA will likely
continue through the morning and into the afternoon. The next
opportunity for TSRA will be from mid morning through the
afternoon when activity will approach from the southwest and
south. Gusty winds, poor vsby and small hail will be possible
with this activity. IFR ceilings will complicate things as well,
and while brief improvements have been noted at some sites, it's
probable that IFR will be the rule for most of today. LIFR is
possible at Waco as a warm front lifts northward.

Non-thunderstorm winds will increase drastically this afternoon,
with north winds sustained near 25 knots with gusts as high as 35
knots at all sites. An AWW will likely be needed to address these
wind speeds. The potential for TSRA should come to an end by 00
UTC Sunday, but there's a chance that there could be some elevated
storms beyond this period as an upper low tracks overhead. Future
TAFs will need to keep tabs on this potential. VFR does not
appear that it will return until after midnight for Metroplex
terminals, though it'll be a little sooner at Waco (around 2100
UTC Sat). Breezy north winds will prevail even during the
nighttime hours.

Bain

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/
The main focus in the short term period will be the threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain across the area. In
addition, there is the potential for strong to near severe-caliber
non-thunderstorm winds. But wait! There's more...there's a non-
zero chance for some light wintry precipitation north of the US
HWY 380 corridor early Sunday!

Surface analysis early this morning indicated a diffuse surface
warm front waffled near an Ozona to Giddings to Huntsville line.
Numerous pre-warm frontal showers and thunderstorms have erupted
in a regime characterized by steep lapse rates as evidenced by our
06 UTC FWD RAOB (in support of VORTEX-SE). The current radar
presentation along with RAP mesoanalysis suggests that this WAA
shower/storm activity will continue over the next several hours.
As a result, there will be an ever present severe hail threat with
this elevated activity as we've already observed near 2" diameter
hail in East TX. The latest HRRR seems to have captured the
evolution of the ongoing radar presentation and I see no reason to
deviate from its output for PoPs today. As the very impressive
upper trough swings eastward this morning and into the afternoon,
intense cyclogenesis is progged to occur and the surface low
should ride the aformentioned warm front into the Hill Country. As
this occurs, increasing baroclinicity should continue to fuel
showers and thunderstorms as the warm sector grows to encompass
portions of Central and East Texas. There is still a chance that
pre-warm frontal convection may impede the boundary's northward
progress, such that it remains south of our Central and East Texas
counties. At this time, I'm finding it hard to believe that this
will come to fruition (given the strong model consensus), but it
is still worth keeping an eye on.

The key message in this is that locations on the cool side of
the warm front (north of the warm front) will mainly see a risk of
heavy rain and large hail associated with elevated storms (likely
supercells). This is primarily due to very steep 700-500mb lapse
rates near 8.5 C/km, deep layer shear values around 60 knots and
MUCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Locations to the south will have
be in an environment characterized by MLCAPE values near 2000
J/kg and very strong to extreme values of 0-1 km shear (in excess
of 40 knots). This will support all modes of severe weather,
including tornadoes. It should be noted that the risk for
thunderstorms after the noon time hour across East Texas and the
Brazos Valley has increased some and this would certainly mean
that some of our area could get in on some of the more significant
severe weather. At this time, it still appears, however, that a
bulk of the intense activity will remain deeper into East Texas
this afternoon. With repeated waves of rain and storms, a flood
threat may materialize, especially along the Red River. The fast
storm motions, may mitigate a more appreciable threat and as a
result, we will forgo any Flood/Flash Flood watches. Isolated
instances of flooding/flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Strong non-thunderstorm winds are also expected late this
afternoon and into the overnight hours across the western half of
the area as the surface pressure gradient really tightens. I've
hoisted a Wind Advisory that runs from 21 UTC Saturday through 12
UTC Sunday, though some alterations to the product may be needed.
Conceptual models suggest that there could be some sort of sting
jet that sets up on the backside of the low. Given that there will
be some precipitation occurring on the backside of this system
associated with the TROWAL, we may see enough downward momentum
transfer due to evaporative effects which could result in some
very strong winds across the northern Big Country and possibly
into western North Texas. In fact HRRR, TTU WRF and NAM NEST
guidance has been insistent on a corridor of very intense wind
gusts (greater than 50 knots) from near and northwest of a
Gainesville to Weatherford to Eastland line. At this time, I'll
hold off on a High Wind Watch/Warning, but one may be needed if these
trends continue.

As the upper level low ejects out into the southern plains, there
will be the potential for cold core convection beneath the low
center. I'll keep PoPs in the chance to likely category as it
lifts northward. There may be a hail risk with the more vigorous
convection. As mentioned above, this upper low will induce a
TROWAL as it exits into the Ark-La-Tex and with some decent WAA
and resultant FGEN, there is the potential for some banded
precipitation. Most model guidance supports mainly a cold rain
after tonight, but the NAM suggests that a few snow flakes may mix
in along the Red River. For now, will show an all rain forecast,
but this will be another element to monitor.

The first part of next week will be generally quiet as shortwave
ridging dominates the weather. That will change around the mid-
week time frame as return flow sets up across the area. Dewpoints
are expected to creep back up into the low to mid 60s with a very
sharp dryline forecast to set up and mix eastward towards the I-35
corridor. A majority of the forcing for ascent will lift into
Oklahoma with likely capping across North and East Texas. The
dryline should slide eastward which should yield showers and
thunderstorms. Given that instability and wind shear will be
available, we will likely have to contend with another threat for
severe weather.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  43  67  50  78 / 100  50   0   0   0
Waco                67  43  67  49  78 / 100  10   0   0   0
Paris               58  42  63  45  74 / 100  70   0   0   0
Denton              58  42  65  49  78 / 100  60   0   0   0
McKinney            59  43  65  48  75 / 100  60   0   0   0
Dallas              62  45  67  51  78 / 100  50   0   0   0
Terrell             63  44  65  47  75 / 100  50   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  44  66  48  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
Temple              70  44  68  49  79 / 100  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       57  40  67  48  81 / 100  50   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159.

&&

24/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
258 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140800-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
258 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Storms across most of North and Central Texas will support a hail
threat throughout today. The greatest potential for severe
thunderstorms will be roughly southeast of a Temple to Athens line
where a tornado or damaging wind threat may organize later this
morning. There will also be a heavy rain and flood potential for
locales near and north of the US HWY 380 corridor.

Very strong non-thunderstorm winds will be possible during the
afternoon and overnight hours. Northerly winds of 25 to 35 MPH with
gusts to near 50 MPH will be possible, especially near and west of
I-35.

Thunderstorms may linger late tonight near and north of I-20 and
could pose a hail threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

After a brief reprieve from storm chances early in the week,
additional thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this morning and into the early
afternoon across a good portion of North and Central Texas.

Bain

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     HAIL             1 NE DENTON             33.23N  97.14W
04/13/2019  E0.88 INCH       DENTON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN DENTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     TORNADO          4 NNW HEARNE            30.93N  96.63W
04/13/2019                   ROBERTSON          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED 4 MILES NNW OF HEARNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     TORNADO          1 SW FRANKLIN           31.02N  96.49W
04/13/2019                   ROBERTSON          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            METAL BUILDING DESTROYED 1 MILE SW OF FRANKLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TORNADO          1 SW MARQUEZ            31.22N  96.28W
04/13/2019                   LEON               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HWY 79 SW OF MARQUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

TXZ091-092-102>104-118-119-121-134-135-146-131800-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-Collin TX-Denton TX-Tarrant TX-Henderson TX-
Navarro TX-Cooke TX-Montague TX-Dallas TX-Wise TX-
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE...
SOUTHWESTERN KAUFMAN...EASTERN WISE...DENTON...NORTHWESTERN
HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN TARRANT...ELLIS...SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN...
COOKE...DALLAS AND NORTHERN NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sunset to New Fairview to near Ovilla to
near Blooming Grove. Movement was north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie,
Mesquite, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Denton, Richardson,
Lewisville, Allen, Flower Mound, Rowlett, Euless, Desoto and Bedford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3386 9733 3387 9732 3349 9695 3342 9694
      3341 9690 3302 9662 3285 9651 3282 9652
      3281 9650 3220 9613 3201 9671 3243 9690
      3303 9748 3340 9781 3382 9742 3383 9736
      3388 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 177DEG 35KT 3341 9777 3310 9749 3251 9691 3215
9675

Godwin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

TXZ135-146>148-161-162-131815-
Limestone TX-Anderson TX-Leon TX-Freestone TX-Henderson TX-
Navarro TX-
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREESTONE...NORTHWESTERN LEON...
CENTRAL HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN LIMESTONE...WESTERN ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Corsicana to near Wortham to 13 miles
south of Teague. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Corsicana, Palestine, Athens, Teague, Fairfield, Malakoff, Kerens,
Wortham, Trinidad, Angus, Caney City, Navarro, Fairfield Lake State
Park, Log Cabin, Murchison, Oakwood, Star Harbor, Retreat, Oak Valley
and Mildred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3171 9552 3135 9636 3171 9643 3208 9654
      3236 9573 3218 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 236DEG 51KT 3205 9645 3176 9637 3143 9630

Godwin