Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Turbulent zonal flow will maintain periodic thunderstorm chances.
Aided by an impulse embedded in this flow, convection proliferated
along a West Texas dryline, then made steady progress east during
the evening. The westerly upper flow and advancing outflows will
maintain this forward motion during the early morning hours.
Although the activity in western portions of North Texas are
outflow-dominant and the available instability will steadily
diminish as these convective elements attempt to approach the I-35
corridor. While this activity may reach the Metroplex TAF sites,
a decline in intensity is expected, and any remaining
thunderstorms would impact the Metroplex during the nocturnal
minimum for airport operations.

A brief wind shift to the northwest may occur, but the convective
activity early this morning is unlikely to have any lasting
impact on the winds. A more significant player for our
thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon/evening will be an
approaching cold front. While the convective activity along the
boundary may affect the I-35 corridor late in the day, a permanent
wind shift is unlikely.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/
Difficult forecast tonight into tomorrow morning related to
convection...both in timing and location. The GFS tends to be the
most bullish in developing storms out in W TX this evening and
maintaining them somewhat as they move towards the Metroplex
around midnight tonight. Several of the meso models hint at the
same scenario, but differ widely on location and timing...as well
as intensity of what's able to make it's way towards the I-35
corridor. Nonetheless, the best potential for any severe storms,
which would mainly be a damaging wind and hail threat, will remain
over our NW counties late this evening. As the remaining storms
approach the metroplex and in areas along and south of I-20, they
should be dissipating due to more stable air in place.

The other factor for early Wednesday morning that we'll have to
keep an eye on is the complex expected to develop over OK later
tonight. As these storms shift east and slowly southward, we could
see a few remaining storms make their way into the Red River
Valley, generally east of Sherman, early tomorrow morning. Don't
think we'll have to worry about any severe weather with these in
the early morning, but will definitely be a key factor for storms
the rest of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/
/Wednesday and beyond/

Summary: Unsettled weather will continue in the long term
forecast. There will be a risk for severe weather Wednesday
afternoon and evening, and there remains uncertainty on the
location of thunderstorm development. A day of rain-free weather
is expected on Thursday and most of Friday, but low storm chances
will return this weekend and early next week. Heat will also be a
concern on Wednesday and Thursday.

There may be a few lingering showers and isolated storms across
parts of the region Wednesday morning, but an overall downward
trend is expected through mid morning. Across the Central Plains,
another cluster of thunderstorms associated with a shortwave will
continue to track southeastward. This will send a weak cold
front/outflow boundary south towards North Texas during the day,
and will be an area of focus for thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon and evening. As the boundary approaches during
the day, warm and humid conditions are expected across the
region. Afternoon temperatures will be in the 90s and dewpoints
will approach the low to mid 70s. Heat index values across the
region may be near or above the century mark. Decided to hold off
on issuing a Heat Advisory for several reasons: (1) possible cloud
cover from overnight convection, (2) how far south the boundary
tracks, and (3) if thunderstorms develop earlier, cloud cover may
keep high temperatures below the forecast.

In regards to the severe weather potential for Wednesday
afternoon and evening, there remains uncertainty on exactly where
thunderstorms will initially develop. This will be highly
dependent on the overnight convection and the location of the
southward moving boundary. While most guidance keeps the boundary
across North Texas, mainly near the DFW Metroplex and areas
northeast, overnight convection may push the initiating boundary
further south towards Central Texas. Regardless, the environment
across North and Central Texas will be favorable for severe
weather, with surface based CAPE upwards of 3500 J/kg, little to
no CIN, EBWD values upwards of 30-40 knots, and steep mid level
lapse rates upwards of 7.5 C/km. This would support a discrete
supercellular mode along the boundary initially, with all modes of
severe weather possible. Modest mid level flow and dry air
entrainment would support a strong cold pool/outflow boundary from
these cells, which could support additional thunderstorm
development. There is a possibility the discrete cells may
organize into a cluster of thunderstorms, and this would result in
primarily a damaging wind and large hail threat. Given the
uncertainty, all of North and Central Texas should stay weather
aware and be prepared.

Thursday will feature rain-free, hot, and humid conditions across
the region, and areas mainly west of I-35 may approach the
century mark. Heat index values may reach Heat Advisory criteria,
and we'll continue to monitor whether an advisory is necessary.
Dryline convection across the west may approach the far western
counties Friday afternoon/evening, and continued a mention of low
PoPs to account for this. Unsettled weather is expected through
the weekend as a few disturbances track eastward. Most of the
scattered activity is expected to be diurnally driven through the
weekend. There will be better storm chances on Sunday as a
shortwave moves across the Central Plains. We'll continue to
monitor in the coming days.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  75  97  77 /  40  30  30   5  10
Waco                75  95  77  99  77 /  20  20  20   5   5
Paris               71  87  71  91  75 /  40  50  50   5  10
Denton              73  94  72  97  76 /  40  20  30   5  10
McKinney            74  93  73  95  76 /  40  30  40   5  10
Dallas              76  96  75  97  77 /  40  30  30   5  10
Terrell             74  93  75  97  76 /  30  40  40   5  10
Corsicana           74  93  75  95  75 /  20  20  30   5   5
Temple              74  96  77  98  76 /  10  20  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       70  95  71  99  74 /  40  20  20   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

25/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1004 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-200315-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1004 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There will be a risk for thunderstorms tonight, mainly along and
north of a Temple to Palestine line. There is a low severe threat
this evening, mainly across the far northwestern counties. The main
threats would damaging wind and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Additional thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. Given strong
instability in place during this time, a threat for severe weather
will exist...with the greatest severe risk Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Initial discrete thunderstorms may develop, and all modes of
severe weather are possible. Into the evening hours, damaging winds
will be the main hazard, with hail possible as well. Heavy rain may
also result in flooding.

Hot conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday...especially
across Central Texas. Heat index values on these days may climb to
near or just above 105 degrees.

After a break in storm chances on Friday, more scattered
thunderstorms are possible over the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested tonight along and north
of a line from Graham to Decatur.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

TXZ100-190415-
Young TX-
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YOUNG COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

At 1042 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Elbert, or 14 miles west of Graham, moving east at
25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Graham and Newcastle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3303 9890 3321 9892 3328 9858 3302 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 264DEG 23KT 3313 9883

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

TXZ100-101-116-190630-
Palo Pinto TX-Young TX-Jack TX-
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN YOUNG...JACK AND NORTHERN
PALO PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1249 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southeast of Windthorst to near Bryson
to 6 miles south of Graham. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Graham, Jacksboro, Graford, Bryson and Newport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3339 9859 3340 9842 3347 9842 3347 9798
      3344 9798 3343 9792 3302 9792 3300 9795
      3300 9805 3292 9806 3283 9819 3302 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 291DEG 31KT 3346 9828 3319 9842 3300 9861

Bain

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