Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
620 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will continue to temporarily impact the Metroplex
TAF sites for the next couple of hours until a Pacific cold front
sweeps through the region (between 14 and 15Z). Although Waco has
remained south of the early morning thunderstorm activity, a few
storms will likely move near or over the airport with the passage
of the front. MVFR ceilings, reductions in visibility and gusty
winds will accompany the storms.

A rapid clearing will move in behind the front with VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites from mid morning through tonight.

The prevailing wind to start the TAF cycle will be south/southwest
between 9 and 14 mph. The wind will turn to the west behind the
front and increase between 14 and 18 knots along with some gusts
near 30 knots. However, these strong and gusty winds should only
last through the afternoon and will decrease during the evening
ahead of another front expected overnight. This secondary front
will result in a wind shift to north at speeds between 10 and 14
knots starting around 07 at the Metroplex TAF sites and around 09Z
in Waco.

79

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019/

A Pacific cold front will be bisecting the region Saturday
morning as it makes it way to the southeast through the rest of
the day today. With the main forcing for ascent lifting to the
northeast throughout the day, ascent across our region will most
likely be associated with the southeastward moving cold front.
Ahead of the cold front, sufficient moisture and instability will
be in place for a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms,
some of which could be severe. Model guidance has been in fairly
good agreement that a linear segment will slide eastward early in
the morning. Given the steeper lapse rates, the probability of
thunderstorms reaching severe status appears to be highest north
of I-20. The threats will continue to be large hail, damaging
winds, and given the low-level shear, an isolated tornado can’t
be ruled out.

By noon, the cold front will have cleared all of North and
Central Texas, leaving behind a breezy day with westerly winds
between 15-20 mph. Given the origin of the cold front, high
temperatures are expected to be only a few degrees cooler compared
to yesterday. Strong cyclogenesis across Kansas throughout the
day today will help drive a weak cold front southward, likely
reaching North Texas later tonight. With no upper level support
for additional southward progression, the cold front will likely
stall around I-20, leading to a wide range of high temperatures
for Sunday. Highs will likely remain in the lower 50s across the
Red River counties, while lower 70s can be expected across Central
Texas.

A much stronger system will be digging its way southward across
the Pacific Ocean and likely move into Southern California Sunday
evening. As this system inches closer to the region, North and
Central Texas will begin to experience a return of southerly winds
that will then aid in the northward transport of moisture. Given
the increasing moisture and destabilization, showers will likely
develop Sunday evening and persist through Monday. Better ascent
will then make its way into the region by Tuesday as the system
pivots from a positive to a negative tilt. Additional moisture
flux will lead to PW’s in excess of 1.7 inches, which is highly
anomalous for this time of the year. Threats for the Tuesday
evening-Wednesday morning storms will be complex and multifaceted
as heavy rain may pose a flash flooding threat with additional
threats associated with large hail and damaging winds. It is too
early to pinpoint areas of highest concern, but it is important to
know that Tuesday night will need to be monitored closely for
hazardous weather.

Showers and thunderstorms will clear from west to east through
the afternoon on Wednesday as a cold front shunts the moisture
eastward. Behind the cold front, a tight surface pressure gradient
associated with low level cyclogenesis across Kansas will lead to
windy conditions. Given the westerly/southwesterly orientation of
the winds, impacts will be possible to the aviation community
Wednesday afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front, dry air will usher in keeping most
of North and Central Texas dry Thursday. The only exception will
be across far East Texas where residual moisture will keep low
rain chances Thursday afternoon and night. A stronger cold front
will arrive Thursday night, shunting any remaining moisture away
from North and Central Texas and leading to cooler temperatures
and dry conditions for this weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  48  58  48  59 /  60   0  20  40  60
Waco                76  50  67  51  61 /  80   0  10  40  70
Paris               73  46  56  45  59 /  90   0  20  40  40
Denton              74  45  55  46  58 /  40   0  20  40  60
McKinney            73  46  56  47  58 /  70   0  20  40  50
Dallas              75  50  59  48  59 /  70   0  20  40  60
Terrell             74  48  59  48  59 /  90   0  10  30  60
Corsicana           75  50  63  49  60 /  90   0  10  30  70
Temple              77  51  69  53  62 /  70   0  20  30  70
Mineral Wells       74  45  58  46  57 /  20   0  20  40  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
413 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101015-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
413 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly east of I-35
and north of I-20 through mid-morning. Additional sub-severe storms
will be possible south of I-20. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary threats, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out
northeast of a Sulphur Springs to Bonham line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will return on Monday and continue through the
first half of the week. Some strong or severe storms may be possible
throughout this time period, and flooding concerns may also arise
after multiple days of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested through mid-morning for
areas east of Interstate 35.

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