Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Sunday/
Thunderstorms will continue across about the southeastern 1/3 of
the forecast area through early evening until large scale
subsidence on the backside of a departing shortwave increases.
There will continue to be a severe potential across Central Texas,
mainly southeast of a line Temple to Palestine which is the only
area currently not under the influence of rain-cooled outflow air.
We will likely keep the Tornado Watch 38 in place in this region
but remove the remainder of the counties. We anticipate
thunderstorm coverage and severe threat to end quickly during the
early evening hours with only some lingering showers/storms
mainly across the east. Some of the high res guidance continues to
indicate isolated redevelopment late this afternoon/evening
across the western CWA where clouds have briefly scattered and
dewpoints have recovered back into the lower 60s. Since large
scale forcing and low level moisture convergence will be weak to
almost nonexistent, we will keep PoPs low.

A few lingering showers and storms will be possible across the
southern zones overnight, but severe weather is not anticipated.
We are watching for the potential for fog across the region since
most areas saw measurable rainfall today and low level moisture
never fully scoured out. The only limiting factor will be an
increase in high clouds as the main upper trough pivots through
Southwest Texas. Therefore, we will just mention patchy fog
mainly across the southeast half of the region and continue to
monitor cloud and visibility trends through the evening.

The upper trough will deepen as it translates slowly across
Central and South Texas on Sunday. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this feature with the best rain/storm
chances across Central and East Texas where an MCS will likely
develop. Although we will maintain the necessary ingredients for
thunderstorms across the forecast area, the track of the morning
MCS will largely determine the severe weather potential. We still
feel the best chances for strong/severe storms will be east and
south of the forecast area but we will continue to highlight at
least some potential for hail and wind producing storms east of
the I-35 corridor. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding but again, it will likely be just south of
the forecast area.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday night through Saturday/

Shower and thunderstorm chances should end from southwest to
northeast Sunday night through Monday as the upper low slowly
rotates to the east and an upper ridge builds in from the west.
The upper ridge will remain in place through the middle of the
week resulting in warm and rain-free weather. The upper ridge
axis will shift east of the region Wednesday night as a strong
upper trough moves toward the Central Plains. Most of the energy
associated with this system will remain to the north and no
precipitation is anticipated Thursday. The passage of the upper
trough will allow a Pacific cold front to sweep trough the region.
It will become windy, dry and quite warm Thursday afternoon which
should elevate the wildfire threat, especially in the west where
fine fuels are a bit more abundant.

Slightly cooler weather is expected Friday with the passage of a
cold front. The cold front should initially come in dry, but
rain/storm chances will return Friday night and Saturday as
another upper low moves east out of the Desert Southwest.

Temperatures through the week will be on the warm side with highs
in the 70s and 80s and lows generally in the 50s and 60s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/
/18z TAFs/

DFW area TAF sites:
A thunderstorm complex has cleared the terminals to the east as of
1730z. While thunderstorm winds were out of the northwest with
this convective system, they have since returned to the east or
southeast associated with our large-scale flow regime. They should
continue to become more uniform through the afternoon hours out of
the east or southeast. Additional showers will spread towards the
TAF sites over the next 1-2 hours, but this convection will be
substantially less robust than this morning's round. Occasional
lightning strikes are possible, particularly on the southeastern
periphery of the Metroplex, and will continue a TS mention at DFW,
DAL, and GKY through mid afternoon. Afterwards, some clearing
should occur with a lull in precipitation chances occurring
through the evening and overnight hours. A return of MVFR stratus
is possible after midnight, although confidence in this potential
and timing is quite low given interrupted low-level flow
associated with convection to the southeast of the airports.
Additional showers and some thunderstorms may spread into the area
Sunday afternoon from the south, and have included this mention
in the extended DFW TAF.

Waco:
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across Central
Texas through the early afternoon hours, occasionally impacting
the TAF site. Coverage should decrease by late afternoon as
activity begins to shift southeastward, but will maintain a TS
mention into the early evening to account for some possible
redevelopment behind the main batch. A lull in thunderstorm
chances should occur late this evening and overnight, with some
low stratus possibly making a return after midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs
may persist into Sunday morning, with another wave of showers and
some thunderstorms pivoting northward into the TAF site.
Introduced showers and thunderstorms beginning at 15z, but
confidence in this timing remains low.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  76  60  79  59 /  20  30  40   5   0
Waco                64  73  58  80  57 /  30  50  40  10   0
Paris               61  74  58  76  55 /  30  50  50  20   0
Denton              62  77  57  79  56 /  20  40  40   5   0
McKinney            62  75  58  77  56 /  20  40  40   5   0
Dallas              64  76  61  80  61 /  20  40  40   5   0
Terrell             64  75  59  78  57 /  30  50  40  20   0
Corsicana           64  73  60  78  58 /  30  60  40  20   0
Temple              64  74  58  80  57 /  40  50  40  10   0
Mineral Wells       61  78  57  81  56 /  20  20  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071300-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible through early evening
generally southeast of a line from Palestine to Temple. Damaging
winds in excess of 60 miles per hour, one-inch hail, and isolated
tornadoes will be the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will also be possible. The severe weather threat will
diminish by mid evening, but thunderstorms will remain possible
overnight mainly southeast of a line from Bonham to Hillsboro to
Lampasas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorm will be possible across the entire region Sunday with
the best severe weather potential east of Interstate 35. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but an isolated
tornado or two can't be ruled out. There will also be a potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially across Central
Texas. Thunderstorm chances will end from southwest to northeast
Sunday night through Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will be likely through early evening southeast of
a line from Palestine to Temple.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 PM CDT SAT APR 06 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             NECHES                  31.87N  95.59W
04/06/2019  E1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

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