Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Sunday Morning/

The main challenge in the short term forecast period will be
convective chances across the area.

Surface analysis this afternoon revealed an outflow boundary was
noted near a Bonham to Greenville to Nacogdoches line. This
feature...coupled with a diffuse mid/upper level impulse will
likely be the impetus for what should be a proliferation of shower
and thunderstorm activity. Mesoanalysis indicates a very healthy
instability profile with CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg.
Recent AMDAR data out of Dallas Love Field indicates respectable
north to northeasterly mid and upper level flow for late June and
as a result...we could see some loosely organized convective
modes that will generally travel from the northeast to southwest.
Given the inverted-V type sounding profiles and 0-3km theta-e
deficits of around 30K...we will have to contend with a damaging
wind risk. Deep layer shear around 30 knots will support quasi-
steady state updrafts and when coupled with the high to extreme
instability will yield a large hail risk. Heavy rain and flooding
will remain a threat, though storm motions should be sufficiently
high to preclude a long duration heavy rain episode. Any training
echoes, however, will be monitored for a brief flash flood risk.
The 12 UTC NAM NEST appears a little too aggressive with its
depiction of a well organized MCS by early evening. While I do
feel that the potential exists for a a loose complex of storms, it
still remains uncertain how expansive it will be. The current
forecast continues to favor scenarios advertised by the latest
HRRR and 12 UTC TTU WRF.

The best potential for rain/storms will be near and east of a
Killeen to Hillsboro to D/FW to Sherman/Denison line trough the
evening hours (though rain/storm chances exist west of this line).
Some nocturnal convection may persist tonight into Central Texas
and I'll hold onto a 40-50 PoP near and south of the I-14/US HWY
190 corridor through 12 UTC. If a well established MCS gets going,
PoPs may need to be increased. There will be a potential for some
morning stratus/fog north of I-20 and east of I-35, but confidence
is a little too low to include in the forecast at this time.

Bain

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Through This Week/

We'll continue to track out southwest-moving mid level
disturbance across Southeast Texas into South-Central Texas during
the day Sunday. Early in the day, expect most concentration of
showers/ thunderstorms to be in close in vicinity of this
immediate track with our far southern Texas counties seeing the
best chances through early afternoon. Afterward, surface
boundaries, differential heating, and pockets of instability along
the edge of anvil debris has me introducing 20% PoP through the
remainder of our CWA and to the Red River Valley. Though a strong
storm can't be ruled out farther north where better instability
will likely reside from stronger insolation, Theta-E deficits in
the surface to 700mb layer do not look near as pronounced as
today, so the severe risk will be much less. High temperatures
remain problematic and completely at the mercy of who breaks out
of the clouds and who doesn't. Central Texas areas may be hard-
pressed to get into the mid 80s, while lower 90s are likely in the
far northwest where more insolation is likely to be found Sunday
afternoon. Low convective chances will remain Sunday night, mainly
across Western Central Texas in vicinity of our system and better
ascent, which will slowly pull away from our area on Monday.

I can't rule out isolated, more "airmass" type diurnal activity
across the region on Monday, but for most folks the forecast will
be seasonably very warm and humid with no additional rainfall. The
lull in precipitation chances will continue Monday night into
Tuesday morning, before increasing across Central Texas later
Tuesday and Tuesday night, as a shortwave lifts northward from the
Western Gulf of Mexico and across the Sabine River Valley.
Embedded shortwave energy will continue within a "weakness"
between two weak upper ridge axes moving into the mid week and 4th
of July holiday period with mostly diurnally-driven shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue across much of the area. I'll
stress with weak flow and subtle forcing aloft and no synoptic
surface focusing mechanisms around, that this will NOT be a
complete washout for outdoor activities and fireworks, as the loss
of heating each evening should help diminish coverage and
intensity of most convective activity after dark. Otherwise, a
broad, but not overly intense subtropical upper high expands
across the Southern CONUS for more typical Summer conditions next
weekend and beyond. A few diurnal hit n' miss storms each
afternoon and early evening, but nothing widespread. Highs will
average in the lower- mid 90s.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019/
/18 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Potential for TSRA at all TAFs. MVFR stratus potential
on Sunday morning at D/FW and DAL.

The main concern for the 18 UTC TAF cycle will be the prospects
for TSRA at all TAF sites. Confidence is high that TS will at
least be INVOF of all TAF sites in the next 2-3 hours...though
there is a low potential that it may occur sooner...especially at
DAL. Similar to the 15 UTC TAF AMDs...confidence in TSRA at
airports remains high enough to continue a TEMPO group for a few
hours late this afternoon and into the early evening hours. TSRA
is highest at D/FW...DAL...GKY and ACT, though confidence is high
enough to include a TEMPO group for FTW and AFW. The main aviation
weather hazard will be lightning and gusty/erratic thunderstorm
outflow winds....with perhaps a low chance for small hail. Waco
will likely see VCTS/TSRA an hour or two later.

Westerly winds this afternoon will continue before winds shift to
the northeast and east just before and after TSRA. East flow
under 10 knots can be expected this evening and through the
remainder of the TAF cycle. MVFR stratus may attempt to build
southwestward during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and my impact
the D/FW and DAL aerodromes. As such, I've included a brief TEMPO
for MVFR cigs around FL025 on Sunday morning.

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  89  71  90  72 /  30  20  20  20   5
Waco                70  87  70  89  69 /  50  30  30  20  10
Paris               69  87  69  88  70 /  30  20  20  20   5
Denton              71  89  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20   5
McKinney            71  87  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  20   5
Dallas              73  90  72  90  72 /  30  20  20  20   5
Terrell             71  87  70  90  71 /  30  20  20  20   5
Corsicana           69  86  68  86  69 /  50  20  20  20  10
Temple              70  86  69  88  68 /  60  40  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       69  90  68  89  68 /  20  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

24/05

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

There will be a risk for thunderstorms through tonight, mainly along
and southeast of a Comanche to Gainesville line. The main hazards
will be strong to severe thunderstorm downburst winds and lightning.
Marginally severe hail and isolated instances of flooding due to
heavy rain will also be possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are possible
Sunday through Friday, with the highest chances along and east of I-
35. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely during this
time, a few storms may contain strong downburst winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be requested...especially for
locations near and east of the I-35 corridor.

Bain

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