Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
655 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.AVIATION...
The primary aviation weather concern will be timing convection
this evening. The much awaited line of storms is taking shape to
the west and northwest. These storms should continue tracking to
the east and southeast and likely accelerate with the aid of
convective outflows. Storms will likely approach the Metroplex TAF
sites shortly after 01z with direct impacts between 02Z and 04Z.
By 05Z, most of the storms should slide south of the I-20
corridor and begin impacting Waco for a few hours. By 09Z, storms
should slide south of Waco with generally VFR ceilings expected
through dawn. Models continue to suggest that some morning MVFR
stratus will develop shortly after sunrise since moisture in the
low levels never really scours out behind the main outflow
boundary. These ceilings should lift and scatter during the early
afternoon hours with generally VFR in the mid to late afternoon.

There will be a chance for a few storms to develop Monday
afternoon when a shortwave moves out of southwest Texas. However,
it is unclear exactly where the outflow boundary will be at that
time so will leave the mention of storms out for Monday afternoon
/evening.

A gusty south wind to start the TAF cycle will decrease just ahead
of the approaching line of storms and cold front. The wind will
likely turn to the northwest and increase with the passage of the
line of storms, but quickly return to the south/southeast
overnight/Monday.

79

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 233 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
/Rest of the afternoon/
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across
North and Central Texas through the afternoon ahead of a cold
front. Although the 18Z FWD sounding indicated a weak cap in place
just below 700 MB, this cap should continue to weaken through the
afternoon as large scale lift increases ahead of an approaching
upper trough. A very moist and unstable (4000 J/kg surface based
CAPE) atmosphere remains in place, therefore, storms should
rapidly increase in intensity ahead of the main line associated
with the front. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary severe
hazards associated with this initial activity.

/Tonight/
Active weather is in store for North and Central Texas
tonight due to the arrival of a cold front and the passage of an
upper level trough. Storms will continue to develop along and
ahead of the front through the evening. A very unstable atmosphere
and increasing deep layer shear will result in a good potential
for severe storms with the primary hazard being damaging winds.
Some storms (especially discrete storms ahead of the main line)
may also contain large hail. There will also be a potential for
brief tornadoes in any bowing segments of the line as well as with
any discrete storms late this afternoon/early this evening. Heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be likely,
however, the progressive nature of the front should keep the
threat for widespread flash flooding low.

The southward progression of the front will likely be aided by a
well defined cold pool, pushing much of the activity south of the
I-20 corridor late this evening and overnight. As the storms
progress southward they should begin to weaken with decreasing
large scale dynamics and increasing capping aloft. However, they
will still be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

The arrival of the cold front and widespread convection will
result in cooler temperatures compared to the last several nights
with lows ranging from the mid 60s in the north to the mid 70s in
the south.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 233 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/
/Monday through Sunday/

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the
southern half of the forecast area to start the day Monday.
Since the upper trough axis will be in East Texas at sunrise and
there is some question as to how far south the convectively
influenced front will be, we will keep PoPs in the chance
category. The good news is that the severe risk should be low, but
there will still be a potential for some heavy rainfall.

A secondary shortwave is progged to lift out of southwest Texas
Monday afternoon and evening, possibly bringing additional
showers and thunderstorms to the region. Since there are some
uncertainties regarding how far south the front will move and how
fast the atmosphere can recover, we will keep PoPs in the chance
category with the highest percentage south of the I-20 corridor.
It does appear as if the threat for severe storms Monday
afternoon/evening will be much lower than tonight, but still non-
zero.

A somewhat quieter weather pattern will begin to take shape
Tuesday with a building upper ridge across the Central and
Southern High Plains. However, thunderstorms will likely develop
on the eastern periphery of the ridge each afternoon. These storms
will move through northerly flow aloft and make a run at North
Texas each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Friday. The north
and northeast zones will be the most likely to see these storms.

Medium range models continue to show a weak low moving northward
from the Gulf this weekend which will likely bring isolated to
scattered convection to Central Texas and parts of North Texas
mainly during the afternoon and early evening Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures through next week will be seasonably hot with highs
in the lower and middle 90s and lows in the 70s. Overall,
dewpoints should be a bit lower than they have been the past
several days (mainly in the middle and upper 60s) which should
keep afternoon heat index values generally below 100.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  72  89  73 /  90  30  30  30  20
Waco                73  90  72  90  72 /  80  50  30  30  20
Paris               68  84  70  85  69 /  90  40  30  40  20
Denton              68  87  71  89  72 /  90  30  20  30  20
McKinney            69  86  71  87  71 /  90  30  30  30  20
Dallas              72  89  73  90  74 /  90  30  30  30  20
Terrell             71  88  72  89  72 /  90  40  30  30  20
Corsicana           71  87  72  89  72 /  90  50  30  30  20
Temple              73  90  72  90  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       68  87  69  89  71 /  80  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/66

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A complex of thunderstorms will move across North Texas tonight,
bringing a threat for damaging winds, large hail and isolated
tornadoes. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is also
possible. As the storms move south of the I-20 corridor late this
evening, the severe threat will begin to decrease, but the threat for
heavy rainfall and some flooding will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Monday. A threat for strong
storms and additional heavy rainfall could exist through the day.

Low thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday through Saturday,
mostly during the afternoon and evening hours each day. The greatest
chances will be along and east of I-35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely north of the I-20 corridor through 10 PM
with some spotter activation possible south of I-20 late this evening
and overnight.

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