Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

A moist and unstable atmosphere will remain in place across North
and Central Texas tonight while another shortwave moves out of
the middle Rio Grande Valley. The best moisture and lift will
reside over the Texas Hill Country into Central Texas through the
night and this is the favored area for thunderstorms. Some strong
to severe storms will be possible with the best chances just
southwest of the forecast area where moisture has been untouched
by convective outflows this morning. Hail and damaging wind will
be the main hazards. It appears that the primary tornado threat
will remain southwest of the CWA where winds are veered in the
warm sector just ahead of a stalled front.

The good news for tonight is that the northern half of the region
that experienced most of the severe storms and heavy rainfall the
past 2 days should only see some scattered (elevated) showers and
storms due to the lingering mid level instability and some weak
large scale forcing for ascent. Therefore, the flooding threat
tonight will be less in the current Flash Flood Watch, but will
ramp up again on Friday so will be extending the watch into Friday
(see discussion below).

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through Thursday/

The active weather pattern will continue on Friday with a
lingering front generally just to the west/southwest of the area
and another shortwave progged to move out of the Desert Southwest.
It is difficult to say exactly when and where storms will develop
since morning convection to the south and southwest could greatly
disrupt moisture recovery. However, we feel that the atmosphere
will be recovered sufficiently for new storm development Friday
afternoon. These storms will have a potential to become severe as
well as produce heavy rainfall. It still appears that the
southwest zones (closest to the front) will be the favored area
for storm development. Since the northern half of the area remains
near saturation and more storms are expected, we have decided to
expand the current Flash Flood Watch until 12Z Saturday.

The shortwave is forecast to move east of the region Friday
evening, allowing the cold front to finally move south. Showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front, but will end
from north to south quickly Friday night/Saturday morning.

Some post-frontal clouds will start the morning Saturday, but the
sun will return by afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into
the middle and upper 70s. The pleasant weather will continue on
Sunday when and upper ridge builds overhead. Highs Sunday will be
a bit warmer (generally in the lower and middle 80s).

Active weather should return to North and Central Texas next week
once the ridge builds towards the East Coast and another upper
trough gathers strength in the west. This trough will remain
across the western states through the week, with several
shortwaves expected to move across the region. The combination of
lift from these disturbances and Gulf moisture will result in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day with the
best chances during the afternoon and evening hours. It is too
early to assess the severe weather potential, but given the
pattern and time of year, severe weather is a likely bet.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

As of 18Z, North Texas skies are temporarily mostly clear as
moisture remains trapped mainly across Central Texas and points
south. This is expected to remain that way for most of the
afternoon until some moisture makes a return northward but still
remain VFR.

For Waco, the MVFR deck is expected to remain for a few more hours
until some drier air moves in from the west. Thunderstorm chances
will increase by 20Z as a complex of storms develops across the
Hill Country and moves east/southeast. Some of these storms may
skirt KACT, and for that reason included a short period of TSRA.

After the thunderstorms depart, some low clouds will likely
linger, but still remain VFR across Central Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  75  62  78  60 /  40  80  50  10   0
Waco                65  75  61  78  59 /  50  90  60  10   0
Paris               64  73  60  76  56 /  40  80  70  20   0
Denton              64  74  59  77  57 /  40  80  50  10   5
McKinney            65  74  60  77  57 /  50  80  60  10   5
Dallas              66  76  63  80  61 /  40  80  50  10   0
Terrell             65  76  62  78  58 /  40  80  60  10   5
Corsicana           66  75  62  78  60 /  50  80  60  10   0
Temple              66  75  61  79  60 /  60  90  60  10   0
Mineral Wells       63  75  59  77  56 /  50  70  50   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-133>135-146.

&&

79/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
414 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
414 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across North and
Central Texas tonight with the best chances south of the Interstate
20 corridor. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
especially across Central Texas. Hail, damaging winds and frequent
lightning will be the primary hazards.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning along
and north of line from Breckenridge and Cleburne to Corsicana and
Athens.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected Friday. Some storms may be severe
with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and some flooding
is also likely.

Another prolonged period of unsettled weather will begin on Monday
and continue through at least the middle of next week. At this time,
the severe weather threat is uncertain, but will continue to be
assessed in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas
through the evening.