Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
820 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.UPDATE...
A broken line of thunderstorms extending from East Texas to the
Texas Coastal bend will continue to work its way east ahead of an
upper low over Central Texas. Precipitation has ended for areas
along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor and rain will end
from west to east across the rest of the region as the evening
progresses. Deeper convection continues to develop in the unstable
air south of a cold front, from Hearne northeastward to the
Palestine area. This region may see the potential for locally
heavy rain for a few more hours, so the decision was made to keep
the flash flood watch going for the 7 southeasternmost counties
until 11 PM while cancelling it for the rest of the forecast area.
Additional showers may re- develop farther west late evening and
overnight as the core of the upper low moves overhead, but
additional flash flooding appears unlikely. Otherwise, slightly
cooler air is expected behind the front with lows generally in the
50s.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 706 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/
/00Z TAFs/

A broad precipitation shield continues to shift eastward as an
upper low moves northeast from Central to North Texas. Embedded
thunderstorms have all but ended across the region with the brunt
of the convective weather now extending from from the Coastal Bend
into East Texas, focused along a weak cold front. Light rain will
linger for another hour or two before also coming to an end. There
may be enough lift for some additional showers late this evening
and overnight as the core of the upper low moves overhead, so
VCSH has been kept through 25/09Z. Otherwise, some lower
visibilities will hang around as long as the light precipitation
remains, with drier air spreading in from the northwest allowing
conditions to improve later this evening. VFR conditions and
continued northwest winds can be expected on Thursday as the upper
level system exits to the northeast.

30

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Widespread rain covers most of the southern half of the CWA as of
3 pm. The line of storms we have been anticipating this afternoon
has materialized from Burnet to Blanco and is on track to move
across parts of Bell, Milam, and Robertson counties at the least.
This line may expand north as it crosses into parts of southeast
Texas, including Leon and Anderson counties. North of this line,
steady light to moderate rain with pockets of heavier rain will
continue for the next few hours. However, this rain will still
result in flooding problems; in particular in the southwest
portions of the CWA where an area of moderate to heavy rain
remains nearly stationary. Road closures have already been
reported in Comanche County and will also be possible in
surrounding counties.

A severe weather threat still exists across our far southern
counties as the line of storms moves across that area. Strong
winds will be the main threat, but we will monitor for a lower end
tornado threat as this area lies along a remnant outflow boundary.

The majority of the rain, including the line of storms, will move
east of the region this evening, but showers and some storms will
linger across the region into the overnight hours as the upper
level disturbance lifts across the region. This wrap around
precipitation may linger across our eastern counties through
daybreak, but should end Thursday morning. Severe weather is not
expected overnight.

The clouds will also be slow to erode tonight, resulting in a
mostly cloudy night. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in
the west to around 60 degrees in the east.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/
/Thursday through Wednesday/

In the wake of tonight's departing system, anticyclonic flow will
persist through Friday, and quiet weather is expected. A front
will move through the region on Thursday evening and night, but a
noticeable temperature drop is not expected. The upper level flow
will flatten a little by Saturday as an upper level disturbance
moves through the northern Plains. This will send another front
down the Plains, and a few showers may reach our northern counties
Saturday night. The front may barely cross the Red River on
Saturday, but isn't expected to progress any further south before
lifting north Saturday night and Sunday. The GFS is significantly
more aggressive with the rain along the Red River Saturday night
and into Sunday, but without better upper level support, this
potential appears to be an outlier at this time; but this bears
watching. At this time, do not have PoPs for Sunday.

Our attention then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday as the next
upper level system starts racing across the country, bringing a
chance for rain back to the region. This next system may have a
dryline, surface low, and cold front set-up that will impact the
event, but the best lift appears to stay to our northwest as the
upper level disturbance tracks across Colorado and into the
Central Plains. We will continue to assess the rain potential and
any severe weather threat for the middle of next week.

Otherwise expect pleasant temperatures this weekend through early
next week with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight
lows in the 50s and 60s.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  78  58  79  59 /  80  20   0   0   0
Waco                58  78  57  77  58 / 100   0   0   0   0
Paris               60  74  54  76  56 / 100  60   0   0   0
Denton              57  77  55  77  58 /  70  20   0   0   0
McKinney            58  76  56  77  57 /  90  40   0   0   0
Dallas              60  78  58  79  59 / 100  20   0   0   0
Terrell             59  76  56  79  56 / 100  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  76  56  77  56 / 100  10   0   0   0
Temple              57  79  58  78  57 / 100   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       56  79  53  77  56 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ122-135-147-
148-162-174-175.

&&

30/91

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
343 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
343 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the entire region through
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall may result in some flash flooding,
mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor. Some severe storms will
also be possible with the best chances across Central Texas. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, but an isolated
tornado can't be ruled out, mainly this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Some thunderstorms will linger east of the I-35 corridor on Thursday.
Lightning and residual localized flooding will be the primary
hazards.

Low thunderstorm chances will return to the region on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible today and this evening south of the
I-20 corridor.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
358 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ174-242145-
Milam TX-
358 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILAM COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Granger Dam, or 11 miles east of Granger, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockdale, Cameron, Thorndale, Buckholts and Milano.

LAT...LON 3073 9727 3075 9731 3089 9726 3111 9683
      3108 9681 3106 9682 3105 9677 3103 9678
      3100 9677 3100 9675 3097 9677 3093 9676
      3090 9672 3091 9669 3087 9670 3081 9664
      3078 9665 3076 9661 3073 9662 3046 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 238DEG 40KT 3071 9725

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

TXZ160>162-175-242300-
Robertson TX-Falls TX-Limestone TX-Leon TX-
533 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROBERTSON...WEST CENTRAL
LEON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND EAST CENTRAL FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bremond, or 17 miles southeast of Marlin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bremond, Kosse and Marquez.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3108 9664 3124 9676 3149 9637 3126 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 238DEG 29KT 3121 9662

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CDT WED APR 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S DUBLIN              32.04N  98.33W
04/24/2019                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 3 FATAL, 1 INJ *** VEHICLE CROSSED INTO HIGH WATER
            ON FM 1702 3 MILES SOUTH OF DUBLIN AND WAS SWEPT AWAY.