Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
progress eastward across the region late this afternoon. Flash
flooding, wind, hail have been the primary hazards this afternoon
and will remain a threat until the line moves east of the region
later this evening. Embedded brief tornadoes are possible in the
line, but the better tornado potential will be with any discrete
storms that develop ahead of the line, mainly across the southeast
zones. All storms should exit to the east during the late evening
hours once a shortwave trough axis passes to the east and drier
air moves in behind a weak cold front.

We were concerned earlier that some additional storms would
develop on the dryline late this afternoon across the northwest
zones. However, the slightly later arrival of the storms this
morning and extensive cloud cover through mid afternoon has worked
the atmosphere over pretty well and it is unlikely that we will
recover sufficiently for any new development. Nonetheless, there
is still a low chance for a few brief, sub severe storms through
sunset.

Temperatures across the northwest zones will be cool tonight with
mainly middle 50s while the southeast zones will remain humid and
warm with lows in the lower 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through Saturday/

Ridging aloft will result in a much quieter day across North and
Central Texas Sunday with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky and
temperatures warming back into the 80s. The ridge will not hang
around long and by Sunday night the axis will begin to move east
of the region in response to a developing upper low across the
western states. This approaching low pressure system will bring a
rapid influx of Gulf moisture to the region along with return of
showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly to the northwest zones.

Better thunderstorm chances will arrive Monday evening/night when
the upper low moves into the Central Rockies and a dryline moves
in from the west. This setup looks good for another round of
severe weather with strong forcing, unstable air and decent shear.
Still looks like the northwest zones will be the most likely area
to see severe weather. The storms Monday night should organize
into a line, pushing eastward across North and Central Texas
Tuesday with a continued potential for severe weather. Difficult
to say for sure, but the pattern would point to a straight line
wind threat as the primary hazard.

Storms should end Tuesday night as first piece of upper level
energy lifts rapidly north. However, a second lobe of energy will
rotate through the base of longwave trough and may result in a few
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but the atmosphere may not
be recovered sufficiently after Tuesday's storms so we will keep
only slight chance PoPs for now.

North and Central Texas will remain sandwiched between high
pressure across the southeast U.S. and a longwave trough in the
west. This pattern should keep most if not all of the storms
Thursday through Saturday across West Texas. It will also keep us
seasonably warm and humid with highs in the 80s and lows in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

Main concern is convection moving through local terminals at this
time. Gusts up to 35-45 kt (generally out of the west/southwest)
can be expected with these storms as they move through, along with
VSBYs dropping to IFR levels.

Convection should clear Metroplex sites by approximately 20Z,
although there is a low potential for cells to linger beyond 20Z,
especially at KDAL. Cells will take slightly longer to reach KACT,
but they will also persist near the airfield longer. Therefore,
maintain TEMPO TSRA through 23Z, with some potential for
convective impacts to last even longer at Waco.

After convection clears sites, winds will be gusty from the
southwest, prior to nocturnal decoupling reducing wind speeds.
Mainly VFR expected after storms pass to the east, but then MVFR
CIGs are forecast to return after midnight. Confidence in timing
is low, however.

Picca

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  86  70  86  71 /  20   0   0  10  40
Waco                67  88  72  87  72 /  40   5   5   0  30
Paris               66  84  66  86  70 /  60   5   0  20  20
Denton              61  86  68  86  69 /  20   0   0  20  60
McKinney            64  85  68  85  71 /  30   0   0  20  40
Dallas              67  88  72  87  73 /  20   5   0  10  40
Terrell             67  86  70  87  71 /  50   5   0  10  30
Corsicana           70  89  72  88  72 /  50   5   0   5  20
Temple              68  89  72  88  72 /  60   5   5   0  20
Mineral Wells       58  86  67  85  66 /  10   0   0  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

79/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
233 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
233 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms will continue to push east across North and Central
Texas this evening. Lingering storms across Central Texas may be
capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes
through mid evening. Thunderstorms should exit to the east
thereafter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
After a break in thunderstorm chances on Sunday, additional storms
are possible on Monday and Tuesday across the region. Severe weather
will be possible during this time as well.

Low thunderstorm chances will also exist on Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely across parts of North and Central Texas
through this evening.

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