Tornado Warning 31, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

037 
WWUS53 KFSD 110204
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
904 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

SDC009-110214-
/O.CAN.KFSD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190911T0230Z/
Bon Homme SD-
904 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BON HOMME COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4319 9803 4343 9791 4330 9767 4317 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 218DEG 17KT 4321 9792 

$$

SDC067-110230-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190911T0230Z/
Hutchinson SD-
904 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
HUTCHINSON COUNTY...
    
At 904 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located just east of Tripp, or 12 miles south of Parkston, 
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
western Hutchinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4319 9803 4343 9791 4330 9767 4317 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 218DEG 17KT 4321 9792 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Weisser

343 
WWUS53 KFSD 110225
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
925 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

SDC067-110235-
/O.EXP.KFSD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190911T0230Z/
Hutchinson SD-
925 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
930 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4319 9803 4343 9791 4330 9767 4317 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 213DEG 20KT 4330 9784 

$$

Weisser

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
609 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

There is likely a very busy night ahead as a deep trough of low
pressure across the Rockies spreads an upper level wave onto the
Plains. This will gradually increase the low and mid level flow and
bring much more unstable air into the area this evening. Severe
weather and heavy rainfall are both expected with this event. There
will be two areas to watch for severe and heavy rainfall potential.
The first will see thunderstorms expand in coverage across southwest
SD and north central NE late this afternoon. This cluster of storms
is expected to become organized and move east and northeast through
the evening and overnight. With deep layer shear, likely close to 50
knots, and moisture ramping up and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms should quickly evolve into a linear system. The
surface to 3 km shear vectors are from about 220 degrees at 30 to 40
knots which is plenty strong to support the potential for QLCS
tornadoes embedded within the main line of storms if a strong linear
system evolves. So any segments of this line moving to the northeast
will need to be watched closely. This severe weather threat appears
most likely from about 2z to 8z tonight and would likely be closest
to the surface to 900 mb boundary, which for now appears to be
roughly along and south of Interstate 90. It looks like the only
thing that could slow this down is if the surface to 900mb layer
remains capped. Will have to watch south central SD from about 23z
to 2z for the potential for a surface based or near surface based
storm ahead of the main line. A storm in that environment would
likely produce a fairly strong supercell but for now most if not all
models indicate capping diminishing this threat.

The other area to watch will be roughly from 2z to 5z in far eastern
SD, southwest MN and northwest IA. The LLJ will quickly increase
this evening and deliver strong convergence and instability to this
area. With the elevated nature of these storms hail will be the main
threat. Deeper shear does support the potential for a couple of
supercells so some larger hail to golf ball size will be possible.

Along with the severe threat is also a heavy rain threat with he
potential for backing winds into Wednesday and additional
development to the west. The best chance for continued heavy
rainfall would be north of Interstate 90 which would be more in line
with the 900 mb to 800 mb layer.

Wednesday morning will see the threat for a few thunderstorms across
southwest MN and west down highway 14. Capping will likely settle
over much of the area from late morning into mid afternoon as weak
ridging aloft moves through between the exiting wave and the next
incoming wave. So for now not expecting much activity from about 14z
through 22z. The next question will be where does the low level to
surface boundary end up settling into. Right now looking like the
925 mb front will be just north of Interstate 90 while the surface
front will be near and possibly just south. The reason that this is
important is that there may be some potential for surface or near
surface convection to develop, and with the expected instability and
shear a few supercells would be likely. The better chances would be
south of Interstate 90 and west of highway 81.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

The main wave and cold front aloft swings onto the Plains Wednesday
night into Thursday and should expand coverage of thunderstorms
again on Wednesday night. There will be a continued threat for heavy
rainfall and severe weather.

Southwest MN and northwest IA could see some severe potential on
Thursday but right now it appears that the cooler and drier air will
settle in too quickly.

Friday will be cooler and breezy as deep westerly flow develops in
the wake of this strong wave. Expect some gusts of 35 mph or so.

Temperatures will warm on Saturday and a few thunderstorms will be
possible as a ridge builds to the west. By Sunday upper level
ridging will begins to strengthen overhead and a trough deepens over
the Western United States. This ridge is expected to continue into
mid week so expecting above normal temperatures Saturday through mid
week with mainly dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the
evening into the overnight hours. Some of the storms will be
severe with heavy rainfall. Later tonight into Wednesday morning
IFR and MVFR ceilings will likely develop along and north of the
surface warm front. More showers and thunderstorms are expected
tommorow night.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Flash Flood Watch from 11 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for SDZ053>056-058>062-064>067.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 11 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MNZ080-089-097-098.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from 11 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
548 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-111100-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
548 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening in south central
South Dakota. Initial storms will be capable of hail to the size of
golf balls or a bit larger, winds to 70 mph and isolated tornadoes.
The storms will congeal into bowing segments during the evening
capable of wind gusts to 80 mph, hail of half dollar size and even
an isolated tornadoes moving across southeast South Dakota and into
adjacent sections of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota toward
midnight. A few severe storms may also precede the advancing larger
linear storms during the evening hours in northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is
possible, as much as 2 to 4 inches in some locations overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of thunderstorms is likely from later Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night. Severe storms will be possible,
capable of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible, especially north of Interstate 90.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 6 pm and 2 am.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             GREGORY                 43.23N 99.43W
09/10/2019  M0.70 INCH       GREGORY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
811 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             PLATTE                  43.39N 98.84W
09/10/2019  E1.00 INCH       CHARLES MIX        SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TORNADO          5 SSW AVON              42.94N 98.10W
09/10/2019                   BON HOMME          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BRIEF TOUCHDOWN 5 MILES SOUTH OF
            AVON LOOKING WEST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
841 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             2 N AVON                43.03N 98.06W
09/10/2019  E1.00 INCH       BON HOMME          SD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&