Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

212 
WWUS53 KFSD 201112
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
612 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

SDC003-005-015-035-073-077-097-111-201145-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190720T1145Z/
Davison SD-Kingsbury SD-Sanborn SD-Beadle SD-Aurora SD-Jerauld SD-
Miner SD-Brule SD-
612 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVISON...WESTERN KINGSBURY...SANBORN...BEADLE...
AURORA...JERAULD...NORTHWESTERN MINER AND BRULE COUNTIES...

At 611 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Carpenter to 9 miles south of Cavour to near
Kimball, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 604 AM, Huron Airport reported a wind 
         gust of 62 mph.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  White Lake around 635 AM CDT.
  Plankinton and Carthage around 645 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Bancroft, Broadland and Pukwana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4463 9786 4455 9785 4454 9747 4418 9765
      4350 9885 4350 9929 4364 9936 4366 9946
      4370 9941 4377 9941 4386 9931 4393 9935
      4394 9893 4420 9893 4420 9870 4449 9870
      4464 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 272DEG 31KT 4461 9788 4425 9811 4378 9896 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

SG

598 
WWUS53 KFSD 201142
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
642 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

SDC003-005-015-035-073-077-097-111-201149-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-190720T1145Z/
Davison SD-Kingsbury SD-Sanborn SD-Beadle SD-Aurora SD-Jerauld SD-
Miner SD-Brule SD-
642 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVISON...WESTERN
KINGSBURY...SANBORN...BEADLE...AURORA...JERAULD...NORTHWESTERN MINER
AND BRULE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
south central, central, southeastern and east central South Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
portions of Davison, Kingsbury, Sanborn, Beadle, Aurora, and Miner 
counties until 715 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4463 9786 4455 9785 4454 9747 4418 9765
      4350 9885 4350 9929 4364 9936 4366 9946
      4370 9941 4377 9941 4386 9931 4393 9935
      4394 9893 4420 9893 4420 9870 4449 9870
      4464 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 272DEG 31KT 4460 9757 4424 9780 4377 9865 

$$

SG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
358 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The humidity is still here for now, with 08Z dew points still in the
70s to around 80 across much of the forecast area. Relief is on the
way, though as lower dew points gradually filter southward into the
area behind a cool front today. By late afternoon, expect dew points
around 8-10 degrees lower than current readings. With decrease in
humidity and cooler temperatures, attention for today shifts from
oppressive heat to convective chances and associated risk of severe
weather and heavy rain.

Ongoing convection across northwest quarter of South Dakota will be
immediate concern. This driven largely by a mid level wave across
northwest South Dakota which will continue moving across SD through
the morning. Storms should remain largely elevated as they move into
and across our northern CWA this morning, with surface boundary over
our southern counties from northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa
between Spencer and Storm Lake as of 08Z. This activity will work
into area with 1-2kJ/kg elevated instability and 40+ kt deep shear,
which should support at least isolated severe threat near/north of
I-90 as the storms advance east across our forecast area early to
mid morning. Hail still seems to be primary threat given elevated
nature of storms, but have already seen isolated severe wind
gusts with the storms in central South Dakota, so this certainly
cannot be ruled out with WSW oriented 0-3km shear vectors of
30-45kt and DCAPE values in excess of 1000J/kg indicated through
mid-morning by the latest RAP.

Approaching wave will provide little additional southward push to
the front through the morning, with the boundary becoming reinforced
by cooling from the rain/storms over our northern counties. This
could result in a fairly strong thermal gradient by mid afternoon
with readings in the upper 60s-lower 70s in southwest MN, to lower
80s in our far southern counties toward Sioux City-Storm Lake, with
surface front likely pushed to just south of the forecast area by
20Z. Despite slight surface cooling through the late afternoon,
enough lift from elevated front to keep a threat of scattered storms
across our southeast forecast area through the late afternoon and
evening. Still some elevated instability to work with, but deep
shear weaker in this area with strongest winds aloft remaining
farther north, so would expect a more isolated severe threat due to
less organized storm potential.

In addition to any severe threat, deep warm layer and precipitable
water values near 2 inches still at or above the 90th percentile in
climatology, heavy rainfall rates and potential flash flooding
remain a large concern with any storms through this evening. This
highlighted well by WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, as well as
recently issued Mesoscale Precip Discussion.

Storm threat should gradually wane from north to south through the
late evening and overnight hours today as front finally makes a
stronger southward push into the central Plains.
.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Much cooler and less humid air mass settles into the region for the
latter half of the weekend. Though overall air mass will be drier
than recent days, a couple of waves moving across the region could
produce isolated to scattered showers or non-severe storms, mainly
in the afternoon.

Cooler than normal temperatures remain in place through early next
week as an upper ridge builds over the Intermountain West, placing
us in northwest flow pattern. Ridging begins to work east during the
latter half of the week, which should spread more seasonable
temperatures back into the region from Wednesday onward. Despite
weak disturbances dropping through the region, a lack of deep
moisture in this pattern will keep precipitation chances on the low
side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Models continue to trend slower with convection on Saturday as
cooler air started to settle across the region. Favored area
through 18Z Saturday appears to be north of I-90, with more
scattered activity further south. Therefore, do not have
thunderstorm mention in KFSD and KSUX. Behind the convection,
potential for some MVFR stratus.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
457 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>069-
211000-
Lyon-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-
Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
457 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest
Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south
central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are expected to move east across the area
this morning into the early afternoon. Wind gusts to 60 mph, and
large hail up to ping pong ball size are the primary severe threats.
Heavy rainfall is also likely, with flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning, possibly into the
early afternoon across southwest Minnesota.

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ070-071-211000-
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-
Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
457 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered storms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding
will be the primary threat, with large hail to half dollar size, and
wind gusts to 50 mph also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 2 pm and 9 pm.