Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1041 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Area of stratus across central South Dakota highlighting an area of
low level moisture working north ahead of a short wave moving east
along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.  With strong 850 hpa warm
air advection ahead of this wave, expect thunderstorms to develop
this evening once warm air is able to work around the elevated mixed
layer around 700 mb. Atmosphere is unstable with steep mid level
lapse rates leading to 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE.  With 0-6 km bulk
shear near 50 knots along the I-90 corridor (with greater shear
values to the north), expect some storms to be severe.  With the
freezing level embedded in the steep mid level lapse rates, expect
hail to be a possibility, along with strong damaging winds with a
wealth of dry air aloft.  12Z sounding out of TOP indicated nearly
1.70" of precipitable water, which is near the 90 percent moving
average. Dew points have climbed to near 70 F south of I-90,
indicative of moist airmass working into the region.  Training of
storms may lead to very heavy rainfall overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

More tranquil conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Disturbance moving across
Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday may lead to some light
rainfall along the South Dakota/Nebraska border.

Flow becomes more active late this week as dirty zonal flow ushers a
series of disturbances in the Northern Plains.  This will result in
potential for unsettled weather for the weekend into the early part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
generally east of the Interstate 29 corridor after 07Z, then
track eastward across the area overnight. A few of these storms
could produce large hail and strong wind gusts, especially over
northwest IA. MVFR/IFR stratus will develop across much of the
area behind the convection, then slowly lift during the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-052>056-
058>062-064>067-069>071-210115-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-
Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-
Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Yankton-Clay-Union-
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota,
northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South
Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms from late evening into the
overnight hours with the better chances east of I-29. A couple storms
may approach the strong to severe category with large hail to size
of ping pong balls the primary risk and damaging wind a secondary
risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-210115-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa and west
central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. A
few storms may approach the strong to severe category with large
hail to the size of ping pong balls the primary risk and damaging
wind a secondary risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

SDZ050-057-063-068-210115-
Gregory-Brule-Charles Mix-Bon Homme-
809 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central South Dakota
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.