River Flood Warning 94, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
626 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Isolated showers are possible late this evening along the Missouri
River Valley as an upper level trough slides southeast into
central NE this evening. Little if any rain amounts are expected.
In addition, widespread stratus over central SD will continue to
move south- eastward into the region tonight, with some fog
developing along the edge of the swath of stratus. With clouds
and light winds prevailing overnight lows will remain close to
freezing levels.

Quiet conditions are expected on Wednesday. A weak surface front
slides south early Wednesday morning; pushing more low
clouds/stratus during the day. Stratus will approach our far
southern counties in the evening hours. It will also be breezy,
with gusts up to 25 mph throughout the day. Daytime temperatures
will be slightly cooler than today, ranging from the upper 30s to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

The main features in the extended forecast are the warming trend
and a chance of showers over the weekend.

Upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS for the remainder
of the week, keeping the region relatively dry and warmer. Highs
on Friday and into the weekend are expected to range from the
upper 40s to mid 50s, especially where the snowpack is minimal
(mainly south of I-90).

The next chance for precipitation arrives Saturday into Sunday
night as a negatively tilted upper trough moves through. There is
still uncertainty in phase/amplitude with this system. However,
looks like the forecast area will be impacted with periods of
rain. In terms of QPF,the latest GFS seems the most aggressive
one, suggesting around 0.5 inch of total rain. On the other hand,
the ECMWF looks weaker and does not bring much precipitation into
the FA. As of now, 0.1"- 0.5" of total rainfall looks possible.
However, this is a period to keep monitoring, given the low
confidence on track and strength of the system, as well as the
extreme difference in QPF amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Light northwest winds will become light and variable overnight,
with a broken low-cloud deck moving in from the northwest. As the
near-surface layer saturates, some reduction in visibility is
possible with patchy fog. A weak front Wednesday will bring
slightly stronger northwest winds, gusting to around 20 kt during
the afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...VandenBoogart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-201030-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-
Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-
Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln SD-
Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
528 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flooding from recent rain and snow melt will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A significant warm up is expected late this week. This will likely
lead to additional snow melt, and additional rises of area streams
and rivers. Many area rivers are expected to return to moderate to
major flood levels this weekend or early next week. Stay tuned to
area flood statements for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.