River Flood Warning 61, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
646 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Fairly quiet night ahead with increasing clouds as another weak
shortwave begins to drop through the Northern Plains. Winds do
become very light overnight, and with the near surface moisture
there could be a risk of fog, though with skies become increasingly
cloudy think fog will be kept at bay. Low temperatures will range
from the mid teens to lower 20s.

The aforementioned shortwave slides across the region on Saturday.
The moisture with this system looks a little deeper than previous
model runs, so increased pops a bit. Even so, still looking at low
QPF, with just a dusting of snow from east central SD, southwestern
MN and the IA Great Lakes area, mainly during the early part of the
day. Highs will be similar to today - mainly in the 30s, nearing 40
around Sioux City.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Still looking like a mainly dry period for next week. The best
chance of precipitation may come on Tuesday with most models showing
another shortwave dropping southward on a northwesterly upper level
flow. At this point however, the better chance would remain to the
east of our CWA. If this were to occur, thermal profiles would
suggest that this would be in the form of rain. Only subtle
moderation in temperatures for Sunday and Monday, then models trend
toward more significant warming for Tuesday through Thursday when
highs may climb into the 50s in areas to the south of Interstate 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

The main concern will be low stratus dropping southeast across
the region late tonight into Saturday. A chance of light snow will
accompany the stratus in east central SD into southwest MN.
Models still uncertain in how low ceilings will reach, but will go
with MVFR ceilings at KHON and KFSD. Sioux City will be on the
edge of the lower stratus, but will leave out of the TAF for now.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
446 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-161000-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
446 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Area rivers and streams are expected to crest today or tomorrow
with a gradual fall thereafter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Areas experiencing overland flooding from recent heavy rains
should see water levels slowly recede. Flooding will continue on
several area rivers into early next week. Additional runoff from
melting snow pack will be limited by cooler than normal
temperatures through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.