Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 6, 2019Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 6, 2019, 1:14 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 6, 2019, 1:14 PM MST (20:14 UTC)
Expired: Aug 6, 2019, 1:45 PM MST
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 5, 2:54 PM MST, 22 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 2:54 PM MST, 22 hours 20 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
254 PM MST Mon Aug 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with the chance
for showers and thunderstorms continuing. Expect seasonably warm
temperatures with mainly light winds outside of thunderstorms.
Some drying will be possible across west and northwest Arizona
toward Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Activity today was mostly along and south of the
Mogollon Rim and near the Kaibab Plateau. Thunderstorm activity
is still ongoing across western Coconino county, northern Gila
County, and portions of Yavapai County. Hi-res models indicate
that activity will decrease as the afternoon and evening
progress.

For Tuesday into Thursday, expect high pressure to shift back over
the Four Corners Region bringing more moist southerly flow back
across Northern Arizona. Highest chances each day for
thunderstorms will remain along the high terrain spreading along
outflow boundaries in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will
cool to become more seasonable.

For Friday and the weekend...There are some model differences
heading into the weekend. The GFS shows a more prominent trough
over the west with drier air moving across west and northwest
Arizona for a downturn in monsoon activity in those areas.
However, while the ECMWF (European Model) is in favor of some
drying on Friday with the passing of the western trough it has
high pressure building westward across Arizona for the weekend.
The ECMWF solution would allow monsoon moisture to spread back
across the state with an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms. It's to early to call at this point. But if
previous experience during this year's monsoon means anything the
trough will win out. We'll see.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect thunderstorm coverage to
decrease after 03z. Most areas will be VFR, except MVFR in
stronger storms. Light sfc winds, except near thunderstorms and
outflow boundaries. Scattered -TSRA/SHRA will return Tuesday
after 18z mainly along the high terrain. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday. Winds will generally be light, expect
in the vicinity of storms.

.Thursday through Saturday...Moisture will remain in place with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through Friday.
Moisture may decrease by the weekend for a downturn in storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ET/DM
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 5, 5:10 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Aug 6, 1:38 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Aug 6, 3:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.