Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
317 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain over eastern Arizona as
drier air moves in from the west through Sunday. The dry air will
continue to move across the state Monday. There is potential for
heavy rain producing thunderstorm complexes through tonight over
east-central Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air has started to move into western Arizona today
as deep moisture continues to move across the southeastern third
of the state. A large thunderstorm complex has formed between
Nogales, Tucson, and Phoenix this afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms into the White Mountains. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to continue through the night roughly east of a Payson-
Widow Rock line. A flash flood watch remains in effect for this
area through 500 AM.

Dry southwest flow will continue to move over Arizona Sunday well
into next week with warming daytime temperatures. Most
precipitation chances will be in the White Mtns for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
southeast of a line from Payson to the Four Corners region (ISOLD
MVFR in +TSRA) with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA elsewhere through the
TAF period. Gusty and erratic winds are likely near thunderstorms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The greatest
potential for a wetting rain through Sunday will be southeast of a
line from Payson to Chinle. Light southwesterly breezes will
become more westerly on Sunday. Drier air will continue to move
eastward across Arizona on Monday.

.Tuesday through Thursday...Drier air will move over Arizona from the
west with decreasing chances of storms each day. Haines values will
increase each day through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight
for AZZ014-017-018.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1215 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2019

AZZ008-037-101945-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1215 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM
MST...

At 1215 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chino Valley, that was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chino Valley.

LAT...LON 3465 11238 3480 11251 3489 11239 3473 11220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 235DEG 8KT 3477 11238

ET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
111 PM MST SAT AUG 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E CHINO VALLEY        34.75N 112.40W
08/10/2019  M1.60 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME NUISANCE FLOODING, SMALL HAIL (PEA) AND
            CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2019

AZZ018-102300-
Northern Gila County-
320 PM MST Sat Aug 10 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 319 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Young, or 15 miles south of Forest Lakes, moving south at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Young, Rose Creek Campground, Reynolds Creek Group Campground and
Alderwood Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 11098 3416 11077 3377 11085 3385 11116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 016DEG 18KT 3412 11090

JDS