Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
932 PM MST Mon Oct 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances return to portions of
Apache County late tonight through Tuesday, with dry conditions
elsewhere. Breezy southwest winds will develop Wednesday, shifting
to the northwest Thursday with a cold front passage. Expect a
noticeable drop in temperatures Thursday afternoon and Friday
followed by a warming trend going into the weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...
Brisk fall conditions are likely overnight, with a slight chance
of showers developing primarily across southern Apache county.
This all reflected in the current forecast, and major updates are
not anticipated this evening.

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.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/...It has been a pleasant fall
afternoon around northern Arizona with sunny skies, light winds,
and temperatures around 5 degrees above seasonal averages. By
late tonight (after midnight), a weak trough approaching the
region will help pull some limited low-level moisture northward
along the AZ/NM border. There is a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly east of a Heber to Window Rock line from
the early morning hours of Tuesday into the afternoon. Elsewhere,
it will be another warm day with just a slight increase in
southwest winds.

Wednesday - deep low pressure moves into the northern Rockies
causing pressure gradients to increase for our region. Expect
southwest winds 20-25 mph with gusts in the 30-45 mph range by
afternoon. It will also be dry with elevated fire weather
concerns. No wind headlines have been issued yet but these may be
necessary over the next 24 hrs or so.

Thursday - a cold front will move from north to south across the
area, with the current models showing the front reaching I-40 in
the early morning hours and then stretching from southern Yavapai
Co to the White Mtns by mid day. Daytime temperatures will be
from 10 to 20 degrees cooler as winds shift to north-northwest
behind the front. Thursday night/Friday morning will likely be the
coldest so far this fall for many areas and we will be monitoring
for a possible Freeze Warning due to widespread freezing
temperatures over several hours. The most likely areas will be
from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns northward, but the higher
elevations of Yavapai County will also be close. The tricky part
of the Friday morning low temperature forecast is some lingering
northeast winds right along and just south of the Mogollon Rim
(including portions of Flagstaff) which could act to keep
temperatures elevated due to mixing.

Friday through Monday - dry conditions are forecast through the
period. Gusty northeast wind Friday morning over higher terrain
should gradually weaken through the day, with lighter wind
Saturday through Monday. Daytime highs continued well below normal
Friday, warming to near normal by Saturday and beyond. Overnight
lows will remain on the cold side.

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.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the TAF period. There will be a slight
chance of thunderstorms over Apache County Tuesday. Light
southwest winds will become gusty up to 20 knots after 18z
Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon from the White
Mountains north to the Defiance Plateau. West-Southwest flow aloft
increases Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front will
approach our state. Near critical fire weather conditions are
possible for areas north of the Mogollon Rim on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday...The cold front to cross into
Arizona Wednesday night and be along a line from the Four
Corners through Prescott early Thursday morning. Near critical
fire weather conditions are possible Thursday morning across
southern Apache County. Very dry and cool air behind the front to
remain overhead through Saturday.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KD/JJ
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff