Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
956 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching system will bring increased southwest
winds through Saturday with low humidities creating periods of
near critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will cool
into the weekend with a chance of showers along the Utah border
Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...Deep low pressure (for late June) over the northwest
United States will gradually move southward over the next couple
of days. The main impact on our region will be increasing wind
followed by cooler temperatures Friday and especially Saturday. In
fact, high temperature forecasts for Saturday are 10-15 degrees
below average and within a few degrees of record "low max" values.
Wind gusts on Friday could reach 40+ mph for some locations and
we will evaluate the need for a Wind Advisory with the afternoon
package. Fire weather will also be a concern, see the fire weather
section below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 AM MST/... Southwesterly winds will be on
the increase over the next few days as developing low pressure
pushes across the Great Basin. We are including chances for
showers near the Utah border as this system moves across the
northern portion of the Arizona Saturday. Notably cooler temps
are anticipated this weekend as well.

A warming trend will return next week under strengthening high
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours, areas of smoke may bring mvfr visbys at times.
Southwest winds this afternoon 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts. Winds
decrease to 5-15kts aft 02Z Fri. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest winds to increase today and
Friday ahead of an approaching trough. A couple hours of near
critical fire weather conditions are possible late this afternoon.
Breezy southwest winds persist overnight. On Friday, expect more
widespread and long lasting critical fire weather condtions.

Saturday through Monday...On Saturday, a weak cold front to move
into northern Arizona. Expect breezy southwest winds to continue,
and isolated high based thunderstorms are possible along the Utah
border. Temperatures will cool to around 5 degrees below normal
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from
Friday morning through Friday afternoon FOR AZZ109>114-139-140.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/KD
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff