Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
935 AM MST Mon Feb 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Moist southwest flow will keep unsettled and cool
conditions going through early Tuesday. A strong cold front
should be moving across northern Arizona Tuesday night with
accumulating snow likely above 6000 feet. Dry weather should
return for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very active weather continues through Wednesday with
significant snow accumulation possible above 6000 feet. Hydro
concerns remain south of the Mogollon Rim where water levels
remain high across the creeks and streams. As of 9:30am this
morning, the Verde River near Camp Verde is at 13.3 feet and
nearly 10,000 cfs. This indicates a significant amount of water
still remains in this area.

Rain and snow showers will linger, but generally decrease in
coverage through the afternoon. An increase in precipitation
intensity and coverage is anticipated tonight into Tuesday with
snow levels between 6,000-6,500 feet. A cold front associated with
a very cold upper low will cross the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning which will bring the period of most significant
precipitation and lowering snow levels. General snowfall amounts
of 6-12 inches above 6,000 feet are forecasted at this time
through midday Wednesday. Additionally, gusty southwest winds will
persist through the period with the potential for blowing snow
and low visibility especially Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Daytime temperatures on Wednesday will struggle to get out of the
mid-upper 20s over the higher terrain with wind chills making it
feel even colder.

Based on the early 12Z guidance that has come in, winter weather
products will be needed for this afternoon's forecast package. One
concern pertaining to snowfall amounts is the shallow nature of
the moisture until Tuesday evening when deeper moisture arrives.
There is also concern for more hydro issues with additional
precipitation on the way. Lots to consider, so stay tuned to the
latest forecasts in what will be an impactful 36-48 hours of
weather across northern Arizona.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /454 AM MST/...Some streams and creeks continue
to run high this morning and a flood warning continues for east-
central Yavapai County until 845 this morning.

A period of unsettled weather will persist through midweek.
Precipitation chances with generally light showers will linger
today and early Tuesday. Greater chances for significant rain and
snow are forecast to develop later Tuesday into Wednesday. This
next low pressure system, currently situated near the Pacific
Northwest, will be colder than the Saturday night storm, with
more of the precipitation falling as snow. Present indications
are for accumulating snow at and above 7000 feet during the day
Tuesday, then accumulating snow down to 5500-6000 feet Tuesday
night and early Wednesday.

Dry conditions should return Thursday and Friday in the wake of
the passing low pressure system, along with afternoon temps
showing a gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...ISOLD to SCT -SHRA/-SHSN, along
with some DZ and FG, from the Mogollon Rim and NW to the Kaibab
Plateau. Local IFR/LIFR conditions for cigs/vis primarily along and
south of Mogollon Rim. Surface S-SW winds at 10-20g25-30 kts. ISOLD
to SCT precipitation is expected to continue over the Mogollon Rim
and Kaibab Plateau through the TAF period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will
continue today, especially along the Mogollon Rim and the Kaibab
Plateau. Rain and snow chances increase tonight and Tuesday, mainly
over the same areas. Temperatures will remain below normal, with
breezy southwest winds today and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Rain and snow showers will persist on
Wednesday, along with colder temperatures and decreasing southwest
winds. Drier conditions and a modest warming trend will develop
Thursday and Friday, with less wind.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/KD
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
144 PM MST MON FEB 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PAGE SPRINGS            34.77N 111.89W
02/03/2019                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            AT THE PEAK OF THE FLOODING THERE WAS ABOUT
            1 FT OF WATER FLOWING THROUGH THE RV PARK.
            ONE LARGE TREE AND SEVERAL SMALLER TREES
            CAME DOWN IN THE FLOODING AND RED MUD WAS
            DEPOSITED THROUGHOUT THE RV PARK.

&&

DB