Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
314 PM MST Thu Feb 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Wet weather will continue across northern Arizona
through early Friday. Any snow will generally remain confined to
elevations above 8000-8500 feet. Flooding remains possible for
areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Drier conditions on Friday will
give way to colder and snowier weather over the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The moisture plume has arrived with rain and high
elevation snow pushing across Arizona during the afternoon hours.
Everything still looks on track with widespread rainfall
continuing into early Friday morning. A general coverage of
rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 inches can be expected. Southwest
facing slopes along and south of the Mogollon Rim will see
rainfall totals in excess of 2.0 inches. The result will be the
threat of some flooding across Yavapai and Gila Counties. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday afternoon for these
counties with rivers and creeks on the rise. Most notably Oak
Creek, Sycamore Creek, Granite Creek, Dry Beaver Creek, Wet Beaver
Creek, West Clear Creek, Fossil Creek, Tonto Creek, East Verde
Verde River, Verde River and Agua Fria River. Low water crossings
will likely be impacted. Snow levels will remain around 8000-8500
ft through Friday morning keeping snow accumulation to the highest
mountains and terrain. In addition to the rainfall, expect gusty
southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph this
afternoon.

Showers will generally come to an end Friday morning as the short
wave trough and associated moisture plume moves out of our area.
A colder air mass will filter in early Friday so there could be
some snow as low as the 7000 foot level Friday morning but
accumulation will be minimal at these lower elevation. Much of the
day Friday will be dry but runoff will keep area streams flowing
high.

On Saturday...A much colder pattern will develop across northern
Arizona. For much of the week beyond Saturday high temperatures
will generally remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the
mountains and the 40s to lower 50s at lower elevations. To begin
the action a weak short wave trough will move across Arizona on
Saturday and with lingering moisture showers will develop across
Arizona, especially over the higher terrain. At this time snow
levels are forecast to fall to elevations in the 4000 to 5000 foot
range with 1 or 2 inches of snow accumulation possible.

For Sunday and Monday...An even stronger short wave will swing
across Arizona from the north. By early Monday morning snow levels
will dip to elevations in the 2500 to 3500 foot range. An
additional 2 to 5 inches of snow are anticipated with this
system.

Beyond Monday...The unsettled and cold weather pattern will
continue. There will likely be some break in the threat for
showers from Tuesday into Wednesday but later on Wednesday and
toward the end of next week the potential for an even stronger
storm exists. We'll keep you updated on the potentially strongest
winter storm of the season. Too early to have a lot of confidence
but the door is open and the pattern conducive to such a storm.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Widespread SHRA continues to move
from west to east over northern Arizona and will begin to decrease
in coverage after 06Z. Scattered showers over the high country
through 18Z. MVFR and local IFR cigs continue overnight. High
terrain breezy S-SW surface winds at 10-20g20-30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread rain showers and snow above 8,500 feet
MSL will continue into tonight. Another system will bring rain and
snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. A trend of below
average temperatures begins Saturday, along with breezy winds.

Sunday through Tuesday...Unsettled weather and cold temperatures
will continue this period with additional precipitation chances each
day. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected to persist Sunday
and decrease Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread rain showers and snow above 8,500 feet
MSL will continue into tonight. A trend of below average
temperatures begins Friday as another system will bring rain and
snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday...Unsettled weather with much colder
temperatures will continue this period with additional precipitation
chances each day. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected to
persist through the weekend and decrease Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
502 PM MST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      6 SSW KACHINA VILLAGE   35.03N 111.74W
02/14/2019                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            BOULDER-FALL ON AZ-89A IMPACTED A VEHICLE,
            DISABLING IT NO INJURIES OR FATALITIES
            REPORTED.

&&

JDS