Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

936 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012228
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
328 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

AZC025-020000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190802T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
328 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST FOR A 
RURAL AREA NORTH OF BAGDAD IN YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 325 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 1.5 
inches of heavy rain in a rural area north of Bagdad. Flash flooding 
is likely in area drainages, including Burro Creek.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of Yavapai County.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Burro Creek...
Bear Creek...Boulder Creek...Salt Creek...Conger Creek...Francis
Creek...Spencer Creek...Hop Creek...Willow Creek and Adobe Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 11322 3477 11318 3460 11327 3460 11332
      3492 11333

$$

RR

990 
WGUS75 KFGZ 012355
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
455 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

AZC025-020001-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190802T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
455 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM
MST...

The thunderstorms that were producing heavy rain northwest of Bagdad 
have ended and any flooding that developed is likley receding. Flash 
flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat and the Flash Flood 
Warning will be allowed to expire at 5 PM MST.

Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3493 11322 3477 11318 3460 11327 3460 11332
      3492 11333

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated each day through the period. Storms
will first form over higher terrain, then moving into the lower
elevations in the late afternoon and early evening.

&&

.UPDATE...The 12Z KFGZ sounding showed 0.92 inch Pwat with a
northwest flow up through around 550 mb and then southwest flow
above that. There was no significant cap. Cumulus fields were
already forming over the higher terrain. It looks like it will be
an active across the northland today. No updates needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...Overnight showers have ended with
cloud cover breaking up across the western portion of the area. A
few areas of patchy fog have developed near Bellemont and the
Grand Canyon Airport this morning. Patchy fog will continue to be
possible from Flagstaff west to Williams and north along SR64 to
the Grand Canyon.

Expect a more typical monsoon thunderstorm day across northern
Arizona for Thursday and Friday. The deep moisture we saw on
Wednesday will slowly decrease over the next couple of days. For
Thursday, scattered showers and storms will form along and south
of the Mogollon Rim first before outflow boundaries begin to
dictate new development elsewhere. More isolated thunderstorm
activity is possible for northern Apache and Navajo Counties near
the Four Corners Region.

For Friday into the weekend, expect continued daily chances for
afternoon scattered thunderstorms mainly along the high terrain.
Sunday into the beginning of next week, models continue to suggest
a return to more widespread coverage of afternoon storms as
models hint that an easterly wave may bring increasing return flow
moisture in around the high.

There is still the indication toward the middle to end of next
week that a deepening trough will form off the Pacific Coast
causing the high to shift eastward by next weekend bringing us a
more southwesterly flow. Differences in the strength of this
feature and the resulting position of the high give high
uncertainty to the forecast middle to end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered shra/tsra and isold
+tsra over higher terrain, moving to lower elevations by 21Z. Most
areas VFR, expect MVFR in stronger storms. Sfc winds light, except
near thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect a return to more normal monsoon conditions.
This means scattered thunderstorms initiating over higher terrain by
late morning and moving into the lower elevations later in the day.
Wind will be generally light, expect in the vicinity of storms.

.Saturday through Monday...Expect a standard monsoon pattern during
this period, with daily chances for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Generally light winds and seasonal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/ET
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
142 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

AZZ014-012130-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
142 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 142 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Vernon, or 24 miles northwest of Springerville,
moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Ortega Lake.

LAT...LON 3426 10959 3428 10970 3448 10970 3444 10944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 190DEG 11KT 3435 10963

RR