Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 AM MST Wed May 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather systems will move across Arizona
over the next several days. Look for mostly cloudy skies and
cooler temperatures with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.

&&

.UPDATE...A trough of low pressure is moving across northern
Arizona this morning. The morning sounding had a PW of 0.49, laps
rate of 7.9, and the forecast LI is -1 to-2 across the area. All
this means we have an unstable atmosphere with lots of moisture.
We already have seen strong storms moving across the area. Current
forecast is in good shape...may have to lower POPs in the
northwest for later this afternoon as the unstable air shifts
eastward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /353 AM MST/...A shortwave disturbance moving
across the area overnight has produced a band of light showers
that is currently stretched from Congress northeast to Tuba City.
Elsewhere, there are a few isolated showers across southern
Apache and Navajo counties. These showers will continue to move
off to the southeast through the morning over southern Apache and
Navajo counties.

Behind the morning band of showers, expect more widespread
showers to develop through the day as another trough swings in
from the northwest. Daytime heating will allow for enough
instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by the
afternoon. Expect gusty winds and small hail to be possible with
any storms that develop. By Wednesday evening, shower chances
decrease east to west as the system exits to the east overnight.
Expect breezy west to northwest winds Wednesday afternoon.

After the brief break in precipitation for most places overnight
Wednesday into early Thursday, another shortwave trough will bring
returning showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday with
the best chances along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

Looking into the weekend, the pattern stays active across
northern Arizona. Long range models show continued troughing over
the southwest with a deepening cutoff low developing off the
southern California coast by Saturday morning. This low slowly
advances across the area with embedded impulses rotating by
through the weekend. This will bring continued periods of
widespread chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms each
day through the weekend into early next week. If you have outdoor
plans this weekend, you may want to consider alternative plans.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered SHRA moving
through the area in the vicinity of KFLG-KINW NW to SE will move out
of the area by 21Z. Additional SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon
and last through early evening. Most areas will remain VFR through
the day, with local MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Winds
today W to NW 10-15 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect an active, wet, and cool weather pattern
through the remainder of this week. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will bring a good chance of wetting rain to many
areas today. Breezy west to northwest winds today will decrease the
rest of the week. Additional showers and storms will favor areas
along and north of the Mogollon Rim on Thursday. The chance for
showers and afternoon storms will continue each day through Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/ET
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1057 AM MST Wed May 8 2019

AZZ007-008-015-037-038-081845-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Coconino Plateau-Western Mogollon
Rim-Yavapai County  Mountains-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
1057 AM MST Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 AM MST...

At 1056 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Williams, or 27 miles northeast of Chino Valley,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Yavapai and
Coconino Counties.

LAT...LON 3513 11242 3524 11233 3509 11197 3488 11216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 303DEG 20KT 3512 11225

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1155 AM MST Wed May 8 2019

AZZ008-037-081915-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1155 AM MST Wed May 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
MST...

At 1154 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Camp Verde, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camp Verde, Mcguireville, Montezuma Well, Montezuma Castle National
Monument, Rimrock, Middle Verde, Lake Montezuma and Clear Creek
Campgrounds.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3444 11192 3462 11193 3467 11167 3435 11167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 267DEG 30KT 3454 11184

KD

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